New Parlays & Combos hub at /parlay (also /combo and /props): the evaluator front and center, the payout/arbitrage/sizing calculators, the how-parlays-work and strategy guides, and a plain-English piece on why big combos rarely cash. One home for everything combo-related.
Three upgrades to the Parlay & Combo Evaluator: it now handles up to 16 legs (matching Kalshi), you can mark legs as already won (and screenshots auto-detect check marks), and once some legs have hit, a hedge panel shows exactly how much to bet against your riskiest remaining leg to lock in a floor, at 25/50/75/100%, with the guaranteed profit each way.
Upload a screenshot of your slip to evaluate it. The image is read right on your device (nothing is uploaded anywhere), the legs are matched to live markets, and you get the full analysis: odds ladder, weakest leg, dead weight, and a verdict. Pasting text still works too, with a parser tuned for how real slips are laid out.
The Parlay & Combo Evaluator now shows the full odds ladder: the chance of hitting exactly 0, 1, 2 ... all your legs, so you can see you'll most likely land ~4 of 8 while going 8-for-8 is a long shot. Plus deeper market search that reaches low-volume player and team props, not just the top-volume board.
The Parlay Builder is now a full Parlay & Combo Evaluator. Paste a ticket (from Kalshi or a plain list) and it matches your legs to live markets, or build one as before, then get a real read: combined odds, your weakest leg, dead-weight legs that barely add payout, correlation warnings when legs share an event, and a verdict on whether to swap something out. Up to 8 legs now. Searching props, combo, or parlay all find it.
The Locks page now has a home on the Research hub, and the Weekly Wire email now reports how many underrounds the scanner caught that week, a standing reminder of what lock alerts do, with a link to the board.
New page: Locks & underrounds (/locks). A live scan of every one-winner field on Kalshi, showing anything priced under 100 cents right now, the fields closest to fair, the locks our alert system has caught, and honest answers to whether a lock is really free money. Updated every few minutes.
New free Edge Lab panel: the Edge Trend. It splits your date-sorted trades in half and compares per-contract profit, first half versus second, so you can see whether you're actually improving, decaying, or holding steady. Steadiness across time is itself evidence your results aren't a hot streak.
Two new glossary terms for the lock-alert era: Underround (a one-winner field priced under 100 cents) and Lock (what traders call it), each with the honest caveats about fees, depth, and stale quotes.
The Prediction Journal's calibration card is now shareable: once you have 10+ graded predictions, share your Brier score on real settled markets as a branded card.
Polish pass on lock alerts: they now appear correctly labeled in your alert history, and the trial and comp reminder emails and the homepage mention them where it matters.
Lock alerts are now on the pricing page, and the Scanner shows a running list of locks the alert system has actually caught, each one an underround that subscribers heard about within minutes.
New Pro alert: Lock alerts. The Value Scanner already finds one-winner fields priced under 100 cents, an underround, but they appear and vanish in minutes. Now our server re-scans around the clock and emails you the moment one shows up, with every leg and the gap to fair, plus the honest caveats (fees, depth, stale quotes) before you act. Each event alerts once. Turn it on from the Alerts page or the Scanner.
Three new guides answering the questions every newcomer searches first: What states is Kalshi legal in? (all 50, and the honest wrinkle around contested sports markets), How old do you have to be? (18, and why it differs from casinos), and Position limits, explained (why they exist, how they vary, and when they actually matter).
Friends who arrive on an invite link now see it: a welcome note showing who invited them and that you both get a free month if they ever go Pro. Dismissible, and gone once they sign in.
Comped Pro months now get the same courtesy as trials: a single heads-up email two days before your free month ends, with the option to keep Pro. One reminder, never more.
Your account menu now shows exactly how you have Pro: subscription, comped (with the end date), or trial (with when it ends), plus a Keep Pro link when a comp or trial is running out. Manage subscription now appears only for actual subscriptions.
Comped Pro months (giveaways) are now self-expiring: grants carry an expiry that the daily sweep enforces, subscribing normally clears any expiry, and a comp can never touch a real subscriber's access. Fulfilling a giveaway is now one action in the admin panel instead of SQL plus a calendar reminder.
Lifecycle emails: a one-time heads-up two days before your Pro trial ends, and a one-time nudge if you created an account but never ran your trades (with the CSV export walkthrough). Each sends at most once, ever.
The Invite page now reflects the real reward: when someone you refer subscribes to Pro, you both get a month free, a $19 credit each, applied automatically to the next bill. No caps.
ContractTax can now be added to your home screen as an app (web app manifest), handy for the daily pages.
Public trader cards are now shareable by anyone viewing them, not just the owner, with the card's branded image. A shared card credits its owner as the referrer, so every view is a chance to spread it.
Added referral reward tiers to the Invite page: a progress bar toward perks (a free month of Pro at 3 referrals, a year at 10) so there's a reason to keep sharing. Rewards are applied by the team, not auto-granted, so they stay abuse-resistant.
New Invite friends page: grab your invite link, share it to any app, and see how many traders you have brought in, with a short how-it-works. Reachable from your dashboard and the footer.
Your shares now bring credit back to you. Every share from your dashboard (score, patterns, highlights, streaks, calendar, recap, and your profile card) carries your referral code, and any page a friend lands on captures it, so signups from your shares count as your referrals. The dashboard now shows how many traders you have brought in.
The rest of your dashboard is now shareable, each as a personal branded card: your highlights (biggest win), your streaks (longest run), your P&L calendar (best green run), and your recap (trades, win rate, contracts). All keep your dollar P&L private, sharing the flex, not the figures.
Added a Your trader card strip at the top of the dashboard. If you have a public card it is one tap to share your profile (Sharp Score, rank, badges) with friends or view it; if you have not claimed one yet, it is one tap to set it up. The single link you send someone, front and center.
Your dashboard is now shareable, not just tool outputs. Your Sharp Score card and your timing patterns each have a share that renders a personal branded card (your score and tier; your best and worst trading days) to send to friends or post, with your dollar P&L kept private. More profile modules to follow.
Two more one-tap shares, both fresh daily hooks: the Value Scanner shares the tightest-priced (or potential-lock) one-winner field on Kalshi right now, and the Movers page shares the biggest live odds swing. Both render as branded cards with the real market and number.
More shareable insights: the State of Kalshi report can now share its headline stat (the share of traders who are net profitable), and Today on Kalshi has a one-tap share of the biggest mover of the day, both as branded cards. State of Kalshi only shares once real data is live, never the sample preview.
The Edge Lab result now shares as a branded card with your verdict on it ('My edge is real: +3.4 pts'), to your phone's share sheet or straight to X, Reddit, and the clipboard, in place of the old copy-only button. The shareable link and Pro access are unchanged.
Extended the new Share control to your results: the calibration test and the Sharp Score estimator now share a branded card with your actual number on it (your Brier score, your estimated Sharp Score) straight to your phone's share sheet or to X, Reddit, and the clipboard.
Share images now show the actual number. A new image generator renders each shared insight as a branded card with its real stat front and center (e.g. 'Accurate to within 3.2 points'), so a share stops the scroll instead of showing a generic logo. Wired into the accuracy report and Truth Machine shares.
Added a Share control to key insights. On a phone it opens your normal share sheet (with the branded image where supported); on a computer it opens a quick menu to copy the link, copy the image, or post straight to X or Reddit. Live on the accuracy report and the Truth Machine to start, with more surfaces to follow.
Published an original data report: How accurate are Kalshi's prices? It measures, across our full harvested history of settled markets, how closely each price level matched real outcomes, with a headline accuracy figure, the favorite-longshot bias, a methodology, and a ready-to-copy citation. Built to be referenced by anyone writing about prediction-market accuracy.
Rebuilt the Research page into a Live Data & Research hub: everything happening on Kalshi right now (the live board, movers, scanner, settlement calendar, crypto ladders, odds by category) alongside the measured research (Truth Machine, Momentum Machine, Strategy Lab, settled archive), in one place, with a link to the daily page. Structured data included.
New free Edge Lab panel: the Streak Effect. It measures how sharp your trades are right after a win versus right after a loss, per contract, so it catches revenge trading (worse after losses) and the house-money effect (worse after wins), which the sizing-based tilt check can miss. Like the tilt check, it's free.
Made the guides library easier to navigate: a jump-nav at the top links straight to each category (with counts), so the growing library isn't one long scroll.
Rebuilt the Taxes page into a proper hub: the whole Kalshi tax picture in one place, how gains are taxed, the Section 1256 question, the 1099 reality, and state tax, with the flagship Trade Report up top, all five tax calculators, the top tax guides, and links to taxes-by-state and step-by-step filing. Structured data included.
New subscribers now get an instant welcome email, the Kalshi Trader's Playbook, with the best free tools and guides to start with and a clear first step into analyzing their own trades. It only sends once, to genuinely new sign-ups.
Two more foundational guides: How to trade on Kalshi (reading prices as probabilities, buying yes or no, selling before settlement, and the order types that save you money) and The best markets to trade on Kalshi (how to pick markets that fit your edge, and where mispricings actually live).
Two new guides answering the questions everyone asks first: Is Kalshi gambling? (the real legal and structural distinction from a sportsbook, and where the line blurs) and How does Kalshi make money? (trading fees, maker-taker, and float, and why fees are your biggest controllable cost).
New guide: How to export your Kalshi trade history. A step-by-step for downloading your transaction CSV, what's in the file (and why prices look like whole numbers), and what to do with it. Linked right from the upload screen so getting your data in is never a guessing game.
Reorganized the Tools page so the 21 calculators are grouped by what they do, edge and variance, pricing and odds, sizing and bankroll, and taxes, each with a one-line description. Added a common-questions section (with structured data) and a link to the Is-your-edge-real hub, so the page is easier to navigate and better for search.
New hub page: Is your edge real? It pulls together everything for answering the question every serious trader asks, am I actually good, or just running hot, into one place: the four principles, and the full toolkit from a quick significance check to the Edge Lab, the Prediction Journal, the calibration test, and the variance simulator.
New: the Variance Simulator. Set your win rate and price, and watch 1,200 simulated seasons fan out, so you can see with your own eyes how often a genuine edge still ends the year down, purely from variance. It's the fastest cure for over-reacting to a hot or cold streak, and it makes the case for sizing to survive the downswings.
The category odds pages (politics, economics, sports, crypto, and the rest) now link out to the matching field guide, the how-to-read-odds guide, the odds converter and edge tools, and the live Terminal, so landing on a category page from search leads straight into the guides and tools for that market family.
Finished the two-way linking between tools, guides, and the live product. Every calculator now links to a related guide, a See it live product surface (tax calculators to your tax forms, edge tools to the Edge Lab, sizing tools to the Bankroll Guardian, pricing tools to the Value Scanner), and its sibling calculators, so it's always one click from a calculator to the thing that does it on your real data.
Tighter links between our guides and the live tools. Every guide now has a See it live link into the matching product surface, a crypto guide points to the live crypto board, an odds guide to the Terminal, a tax guide to your tax forms, and so on. The crypto page also now links out to the crypto guides and the calculators that matter for 15-minute trading.
Fixed the site icon (it now shows the chart logo, not a placeholder) and added a few things: a How-many-trades-to-prove-your-edge calculator, a matching guide on why a winning month rarely proves anything, and two new glossary terms (sample size, z-score).
Added a friendly exit prompt: if you're about to leave without trying anything, we offer a free no-signup look at your edge (or the Trader's Playbook by email). It appears at most once and only after you've had a moment to browse. Plus clearer risk-free badges on pricing, 7-day trial, no card, cancel anytime, data stays private.
Made the guides easier to skim and better for search: every in-depth guide now opens with an auto-generated Key takeaways summary. Also added common-questions sections (with structured data) to the Prediction Journal and Calibration Test pages, so they can surface as rich results and be quoted accurately by AI assistants.
New free game: the Calibration Test. Rate how likely 12 statements are to be true, then see your calibration curve, your Brier score, and whether you're overconfident, the bias that quietly costs traders money. No signup, share your score, and it points to the Prediction Journal to track the same skill on real markets.
Expanded the home page showcase to spotlight the full workflow at a glance, find (Value Scanner), analyze your edge (Edge Lab), rate it (Sharp Score), forecast (Prediction Journal), watch live (Terminal), research (Truth Machine), backtest (Strategy Lab), and file (tax forms), each a direct link, under a one-subscription-the-whole-workflow banner.
New tool and guides: an Edge Significance calculator, enter your trades, wins, and average entry price to find out whether your win rate is a real edge or just variance, no upload needed. Plus a guide on how to get better calibrated (the core forecasting skill) and five new glossary definitions (calibration, Brier score, statistical significance, variance, overconfidence).
Reorganized the home page so the breadth of the toolkit shows up front. The top now spotlights the marquee tools, the Edge Lab, your Sharp Score, the Prediction Journal, the live Terminal, the Truth Machine, and tax forms, each a direct link, instead of burying them below the fold. Sharp Score in particular is now surfaced on its own rather than hidden inside the upload-and-upgrade flow.
New: a free 7-day Pro trial. Start it with no card and get the full Edge Lab, alerts, and the whole board on your own data for a week, then keep it or let it lapse. A live countdown reminds you where you stand. It's the easiest way to see if Pro is worth it, on your real trades, before paying anything.
New: a get-set-up tracker that shows exactly where you are and the one next step, create your account, add your trades (upload or pair your key), see your Edge Lab, unlock Pro, with a progress bar. It meets you wherever you are and disappears once you're set up, so there's never any guessing about how to get value out of the site.
Mobile scrub: did a sitewide pass so pages no longer run off the right edge on phones. Fixed nearly 100 grids that couldn't shrink below their column width, made the Truth Machine calibration table and a few other dense tables responsive so they fit small screens, and added guards so images and code never overflow. No more sideways scrolling.
New feature: a Prediction Journal and personal calibration tracker at /journal. Log your probability estimate before a market resolves; when it settles, we grade it automatically and build your calibration curve, the honest answer to whether your 70 percent calls actually happen 70 percent of the time. It also tracks your Brier score and how often your estimate beat the market's price. This is the forecasting skill the trade-history analysis can't see, because it lives in the calls you make before you trade. Requires the predictions table migration (supabase/predictions_migration.sql).
New: a Kalshi strategy playbook at /kalshi-strategy. One page that lays out the honest principles of trading Kalshi well, beat the price or pass, respect fees and liquidity, size with discipline, and know your own record, then links every strategy guide and the tools that put them into practice. A clear starting point whether you're new or tightening up.
A few improvements: the footer now keeps all five category columns on one row (and collapses cleanly on smaller screens) instead of wrapping the last one. Added five new glossary definitions (limit order, spread, implied probability, resolution, slippage) and a new strategy guide on Kalshi liquidity and spreads, why some markets cost far more to trade than their price suggests. Newest pages are also now linked in the footer.
The Terminal now matches the width of every other page, so moving between tabs no longer shifts the layout. Also added a strategy guide on Kalshi limit orders, how resting an order instead of taking one avoids the taker fee, which is largest right where most trading happens.
Clearer first impression: the homepage now opens with a short explainer for anyone new, what ContractTax does (a real read on whether your edge holds up, the leaks costing you money, and IRS-ready tax forms) with a one-click path to the live demo, before the upload box.
Fixed the social preview cards. Sharing any page on X or elsewhere now shows a card that matches that page, a guide shows the guide's title, a glossary term shows the definition, a market shows its odds, instead of everything falling back to the same default graphic. Also added custom cards for glossary terms.
You can now share your Edge Lab verdict. A Share my result button turns your analysis into a clean, anonymized card, no dollars, no account, no name, just the statistical story (real edge, biggest leak) with its own social image. Anyone who clicks lands on the result and can run the same analysis on their own trades.
The Terminal now lets you save markets on the spot: a one-tap watchlist star sits on every market in the movers, settling-next, most-active, and trending-questions panels, so you can go from spotting something to getting an alert without leaving the screen. Also new: an honest, data-grounded guide answering can you actually make money on Kalshi, which walks through the real edges and leaks and points to the Edge Lab.
Free Edge Lab preview on your own trades. Upload your history and you can now reveal the full analysis, the skill-vs-luck test, your price-band edge map, the sizing counterfactual, and day-of-week performance, unblurred on your real record, with one free look and no card. See exactly what it finds in your trading, then subscribe to keep it every time you upload.
New: a live Edge Lab demo. You can now see the entire trading-edge analysis, unblurred, running on a sample trader, before uploading anything of your own. The sample tells a real story: a trader who is down overall but has a statistically-proven edge on longshots that he's giving back through a favorites leak, tilt, and weekend churn. It is exactly what your own report looks like, linked from the pricing page and the upload screen so you can see the value before committing.
New: a live Edge Lab demo. You can now see the entire trading-edge analysis, unblurred, running on a sample trader, before uploading anything of your own. The sample tells a real story: a trader who is down overall but has a statistically-proven edge on longshots that he's giving back through a favorites leak, tilt, and weekend churn. It is exactly what your own report looks like, linked from the pricing page and the upload screen so you can see the value before committing.
New: subscribe to Kalshi settlements in your calendar. A one-click Subscribe in your calendar button on the settlement page adds a live, self-refreshing feed of upcoming settlements to Google, Apple, or Outlook calendars, so what's resolving shows up alongside the rest of your week. Also spread the one-tap watchlist star to the trending questions on the Will-it-happen hub.
Two additions: a dated RSS feed of the Daily Wire at /report/feed.xml, so you (or an aggregator, or an answer engine) can subscribe to the daily prediction-market report. And a new Edge Lab dimension, When do you actually make money, which breaks your realized P&L down by day of the week, so a weekend-churn habit that's quietly bleeding a weekday edge finally becomes visible.
The one-tap watchlist star is now on the Movers page and every individual market page (as a prominent Watch this market button), so you can set a settlement-and-movement alert from wherever you spot a market. And a new beginner guide, How to read Kalshi odds, explains why the price is the probability, what the yes and no sides cost, how a full field should add up, and the misreadings that cost beginners money.
Three additions: (1) one-tap watchlist stars on the settlement calendar, so you can save any upcoming market and get an alert before it settles, straight from the calendar; (2) a new guide on Kalshi's 15-minute crypto markets, how they settle, how to read the odds, and why the settled history says chasing streaks is a trap; and (3) eight new glossary definitions covering multivariate events, 15-minute markets, overround, taker and maker orders, continuation rate, mutually exclusive markets, and cashing out.
Crypto History is fixed. The settled-history query was using the wrong wildcard character for its matching, so it silently returned nothing even though the data was there; corrected, and expanded to every coin that actually settles (adding BNB, NEAR, ZEC and more). The same wildcard bug in the settled-market search box is fixed too. History now draws from real settled data across all the 15-minute coins.
Polish pass: the Moving Now ticker now stays inside the page width, scrolls more slowly, and has a play/pause button for anyone who finds the motion distracting. The Terminal is narrower and page width no longer shifts when moving between tabs. More crypto coins are recognized so their 15-minute markets show up (the classifier was silently dropping several). And the favicon is now a proper multi-resolution icon instead of a single tiny one, so search engines stop showing a generic globe.
Small polish: the pricing page now matches the exact width of the rest of the site, and the settlement calendar has its own live social card that shows what's settling today when shared.
The Moving Now bar is now a live scrolling ticker of up to 20 genuine movers, and it ignores markets already sitting at 1-2 or 98-99 cents (a move there isn't alpha, the outcome has effectively happened); a swing like 24 to 78 cents is what shows. Also new: a Settlement Calendar at /settlements showing what settles on Kalshi today, tomorrow, and this week with live odds, so you can see what pays out next and set an alert before it does.
Crypto page: the 15-minute live section now shows only the true 15-minute Target Price up/down markets (the hourly range brackets and daily threshold markets are filtered out), and it queries the 15-minute series for every major coin, not just Bitcoin and Ethereum. The settled-history harvest was also widened to pull every coin's 15-minute settlements directly, with per-series counts reported so coverage is verifiable, and the History tab now needs less data before it starts drawing.
Fixed a display bug where a few interface labels showed raw character codes (like the arrow in "fair 20.8x to 19.9x after fees" and the placeholder in the parlay market search) instead of the actual symbols. Cleaned up everywhere it occurred across the site.
The Terminal is now personal: if you're signed in and have a watchlist, it appears as the first panel with live prices and movement, refreshing on the same cadence as the rest of the screen. Logged out, the terminal stays exactly as it was, no login required.
New: the Terminal. The whole Kalshi market on one live, auto-refreshing screen: biggest movers, markets settling in the next 36 hours with countdowns, the value scanner's tightest fields (underrounds flagged), most active markets, the questions the crowd is pricing, and one-tap access to every tool. Free, no login, keep it open all day.
Crypto board fixed properly: untraded markets report a last price of zero, which we were displaying as 0-cent odds and which made the board pick far-from-the-money rungs. Prices now fall back to the live bid/ask when there's no trade yet, dead quotes are filtered, and the harvest fetches the 15-minute series' settlements directly so the History tab fills. And the Parlay Builder gained the question every parlay holder faces: cash out or ride? Tell it which leg you're on and the current price, and it shows the cash-out value, what riding could pay, the chance from here, and the expected value of riding at market prices, with the honest note that the gap is fees unless you disagree with the market.
Parlay push, part two: a full Kalshi Parlays guide (how to hand-roll one, the real math with fees, the correlated-legs trap, and when a parlay is reasonable versus a chase), a proper social card for the Parlay Builder so shared slips look the part, and a live "Moving now" strip on the dashboard so the front door always shows what the market is doing.
New: the Parlay Builder. Stack 2 to 6 real live Kalshi markets (either side), set a stake, and see the combined probability, the payout multiple, and what fees actually cost along the way, with a copyable slip to share. Also fixed the live crypto board at the root: Kalshi restructured the 15-minute series as multivariate events, which our scan was excluding; the board now fetches KXBTC15M/KXETH15M directly by series so it can never miss them again.
New: The Weekly Wire, an email edition of the daily report. Every Sunday, opted-in users get a digest of the market week: how many Kalshi markets settled, the biggest results, what's moving right now, and what settles next, built straight from our harvest with no fluff. Turn it on from the Alerts page (free).
Edge Lab, deeper: the skill-vs-luck test now breaks your edge down by price band, longshots, coin flips, favorites, and marks each band as real edge, real leak, or noise so far (significance-tested within the band). So instead of one verdict, you see exactly where your money is made and lost: lean into the green rows, stop trading the red ones.
New in the Trade Report: the Edge Lab. Four honest answers from your own record: a statistical skill-vs-luck test (were your wins better than the prices you paid, and what's the chance it's pure luck), a tilt check (do you bet bigger right after losing, and what those chase trades have cost, always free), a flat-sizing counterfactual (did your sizing decisions add or destroy money), and a fee-drag readout. The skill test and sizing counterfactual are Pro; tilt detection stays free because safety features don't go behind paywalls.
Crypto history fixed at the source: the 15-minute series are KXBTC15M / KXETH15M, and our query was matching KXBTC- (with a dash), which silently skipped them. Now every timeframe is matched. And the Will-it-happen hub is self-updating: alongside the featured evergreen questions, it now auto-surfaces the trending non-sports yes/no markets the crowd is pricing most heavily, titled straight from Kalshi, so no market has to be wired up by hand. Also tightened the Bitcoin all-time-high question so it stops grabbing the wrong market.
Fixes: the Live Odds movers strip no longer shows an ugly scrollbar (you can still swipe it), the settled-market archive now filters out sports props and intraday churn so it shows real settled events, and a harvest bug is fixed, Kalshi sometimes stamps a settled market with a close time days in the future, which was poisoning the harvest's high-water mark and starving it of recent settlements (that's what made fast-settling crypto stop showing up). It now ignores those future timestamps.
Odds boards are now live in motion: every outcome shows its recent move (up or down, in cents) next to its probability, each board highlights its biggest mover, and the hub and embeddable widgets show movement too. You can see momentum building in a field at a glance, not just the current standings.
New: category odds landing pages at /kalshi-odds, one each for politics, economics, sports, crypto, entertainment, tech, world, and weather. Each aggregates that category's most active markets, full-field boards, biggest moves, and evergreen questions into one live page, targeting the searches people actually make ("kalshi politics odds", "kalshi crypto odds"), with FAQ schema and its own social card.
New: a live Movers page. The biggest 24-hour odds gainers and losers and the most heavily traded Kalshi markets, on one always-fresh page, so you can see where the money and the momentum are before the headlines catch up. Shareable with its own live social card.
New: the Value Scanner. Because a one-winner Kalshi event's whole field should cost about 100 cents to buy, this live scan ranks one-winner events by what the field actually costs right now, flags any that cost under 100 cents as potential locks (with honest caveats about fees, size, and stale quotes), and surfaces the tightest, lowest-overround markets as the best-value places to trade. Multi-select events are correctly excluded.
Odds Boards, smarter and bigger. Boards now know whether an event is one-winner (should sum to ~100%) or lets multiple outcomes happen (legitimately sums past 100%), and label it clearly instead of miscalling a multi-select field an overround. The hub grew too: category jump-nav, a most-active featured row, and each card now previews its top three outcomes with live bars.
Odds boards are now embeddable (drop a live full-field widget on any site, like the single-market embeds), and the site is tuned for AI answer engines: the llms.txt map now points crawlers to the live odds boards, the Daily Wire, and the Will-it-happen pages as current-odds sources, with expanded quotable facts including the 1256 loss carryback and year-end mark-to-market.
Odds boards are now embeddable (drop a live full-field widget on any site, like the single-market embeds), and the site is tuned for AI answer engines: the llms.txt map now points crawlers to the live odds boards, the Daily Wire, and the Will-it-happen pages as current-odds sources, with expanded quotable facts including the 1256 loss carryback and year-end mark-to-market.
New: Odds Boards. The biggest Kalshi events, who wins the nomination, the championship, the award, now render as a full field: every outcome with its live probability, ranked, normalized, with the market's overround shown. Browse them at /events, tap any outcome for its price history, and share a board (the social card shows the top of the field). Single-market pages now link up to their full event board too.
New on the Sweat Board: a live Section 1256 tax ledger. It folds your realized year and your current unrealized P&L into one mark-to-market number, taxes it 60/40, and shows a rough quarterly set-aside, updating in real time as your open positions move. It prefills your realized figure from a saved Trade Report. The tax bill you owe, live, instead of a shock in April.
Share previews that actually sell the click: Sharp Score profiles, live-odds market pages, Will-it-happen topics, and the Daily Wire now generate rich social cards, your big Sharp Score and tier, a market's live percentage, the question with the current odds, the day's settlement count, so a shared link shows the real thing instead of a generic logo.
Two new features: a Section 1256 loss carryback calculator, most traders never claim that a losing 1256 year can be carried back three years for a refund, so this estimates it; and a Sharp Score leaderboard with public profiles. Run your Trade Report, hit "Add to leaderboard," pick a handle, and you get a shareable profile page (handle and score only, never dollar amounts).
New: The Daily Wire, an auto-generated daily report on the prediction market at /report, what settled, the biggest results, where the action was, today's biggest moves, and what's closing next. Past days are a permanent archive. And every market's odds page is now richer: it shows related live markets in the same category and, once calibration has data, what history says about markets at that price level.
The status page now shows a live Truth Machine calibration readout, so you can watch the research dataset fill as snapshotted markets settle, and the Truth Machine's building state shows real progress (how many price observations are banked) with a link to status, instead of a flat empty message.
Fixed This Week on Kalshi: it was only reading the 1000 most recent settlements (all 15-minute crypto) because of a row cap, so the real events dropped out. It now counts the true weekly total and ranks by volume, surfacing the markets that actually mattered. Also tidied the header: the search button is now a compact magnifying glass and the star stays put, so the nav is one clean strip instead of wrapping.
More fixes: wired real Kalshi series tickers into the Will-it-happen pages (shutdown, approval, CPI/PCE inflation, Super Bowl) so they resolve reliably; fixed the Crypto History tab, which now matches markets by series prefix instead of a category guess; stopped the Trade Report, Screener, and Calendar from overflowing off-screen on mobile; and reworked the snapshot recorder to capture markets in the hours before they settle, which is the missing ingredient the Truth Machine, Momentum, and Strategy Lab need.
Nav + fixes: added Pricing and Practice as their own buttons (Practice is a new home for the Simulator, Pick'em, and the quiz), and rebuilt the header into two clean rows, logo and account on top, buttons below, so it no longer wraps oddly or shifts between pages, and the mobile Menu button is always visible. Also: the crypto 15-minute history now loads deep per-coin history instead of just a handful, This Week on Kalshi now filters out the 15-minute and intraday churn so it shows real events, and recession-style markets now resolve by series ticker.
Fixes: the mobile dashboard header now shows the Menu button (its controls row was overflowing off-screen); the Will-it-happen pages now match markets by their Kalshi series ticker, so recession and other event markets resolve reliably even when the ticker doesn't contain the word; and category and tool cards are now fully clickable, not just the title. New: a /browse directory linking every page in one place (also helps search engines discover everything), and a trailing-slash redirect so there are no duplicate URLs.
Fixed the header: it's now a clean two-tier layout, logo and controls on top, category buttons on their own row that no longer wrap oddly, and on mobile the sections collapse into a visible Menu button. Also: six more Will-it-happen topics (House and Senate control, unemployment, Bitcoin price, Super Bowl, and more), and a Biggest movers strip on the Live odds page showing the day's sharpest price swings.
Fixed the Will-it-happen pages showing "no market" for most topics: they were being filtered by a category guess that mislabeled many markets, and the cached market pool is capped and crowded by crypto and sports. The topic matcher now keys off the question wording alone and falls back to a live scan of open markets, so recession, Fed, shutdown, approval, and inflation all resolve to their real live market.
Navigation polish: a Saved star now sits in the header on every page (with a count) and opens your saved items; you can star tools right from the Tools page cards without opening them. Fixed the logo sitting above the nav on the dashboard, it's now left-aligned everywhere. And the mobile nav no longer scrolls sideways: on small screens the sections collapse into a clean Menu button.
Live Odds v2: evergreen "Will it happen?" pages at /will for the questions people actually search, recession, Fed rate cuts, a government shutdown, Bitcoin records, inflation, each answered by the most active live Kalshi market and updated automatically, so the URLs keep their authority even as individual markets rotate. Plus an oEmbed endpoint: paste an odds link into WordPress, Discord, or Slack and the live widget renders itself.
Cleaner navigation: the top bar is now six clear sections, Dashboard, Trade, Research, Tools, Taxes, and Learn, each opening a landing page with everything in that category, instead of cramming individual tools into the header. You can now star tools (and any guide or field guide) and find everything you've saved on the /saved page and at the top of the command palette.
New: Live Odds. A /odds hub shows what the market is pricing right now on the biggest open questions, straight from Kalshi, refreshing every minute. Every market gets its own page with price history and, the point of the whole thing, a free embeddable widget: publishers can drop a live, self-updating odds card into any article instead of a screenshot that goes stale. It's built to be the citable source when Kalshi shows up in the news.
SEO + polish: added a proper favicon set (a crawlable favicon.ico plus sized PNG icons and a web manifest) so the ContractTax mark shows up in Google and Bing results instead of the default globe. New: dedicated per-coin pages at /crypto/bitcoin, /crypto/ethereum and more, each with that coin's live ladders and its own measured up rate and continuation odds, targeting coin-specific searches.
Crypto accuracy + polish: the hourly markets list dozens of strikes at $100 increments, and strikes far from spot are foregone conclusions that were distorting the direction record. We now collapse each strike ladder to its single genuinely-contested market per window, on both the live board and the settle-history stats, so streaks and continuation rates measure direction, not strike distance. Popular coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP...) now sort first. New: a /saved page collecting everything you've starred.
Search now understands intent, not just exact titles: every page, guide, tool, and field guide is tagged with the terms people actually type, so searching "football" or "basketball" surfaces the Sports field guide, "chase" or "fade" finds the Momentum Machine, and "stop losing" finds the Guardian. New: save your favorite guides and tools with the star button; saved items appear first when you open the command palette. The dashboard header now matches the rest of the site.
Merged Crypto Live and Crypto Pulse into one /crypto hub with Live and History tabs, so everything for Kalshi's crypto markets is in one place. Fixed the live board's history overlay: it now pulls each ladder's settle streak and continuation odds by matching the exact live series, not a category guess, so the red/green record and "another up: X%" fill in for every coin as settlements accumulate (the 15-minute ladders cross the threshold within about an hour of harvesting). Old crypto-live and crypto-pulse links redirect to the new hub.
New: a command palette. Press Cmd+K (or Ctrl+K, or tap Search in the header) to jump to any page, guide, tool, field guide, or glossary term instantly, with full keyboard navigation. With the site now spanning hundreds of pages, it's the fastest way around.
New: Crypto Live, a real-time board of Kalshi's 15-minute up/down crypto ladders across the major coins, with countdown timers, live prices, and each ladder's current settle streak overlaid with the measured continuation rate from our own settled history. New: every alert email is now logged and shown in a Recent activity feed on the Alerts center, plus a master pause switch that silences everything at once while tracking continues underneath, and the morning digest now leads with your own watchlist priced live. The weekly review page got a one-click Copy as post button. SEO: thin high-frequency ladder pages are now noindexed and the sitemap lists only substantive settlements, so Google indexes quality over quantity.
New: the Alerts center at /alerts, one control panel for all six alert systems: see what's armed, flip what isn't, no more hunting across pages. New: /status, a live system-transparency page reading the data machinery's own heartbeats. Plus one-click Screener presets, watchlist rows that link dead quotes into the settled archive, and an RSS feed for this changelog.
Seven-part bundle: (1) This Week on Kalshi at /week, an hourly-rebuilt weekly review from our own harvest: settlement totals, category breakdown, YES rate, and the week's biggest settled markets. (2) A deep-backfill endpoint that walks the settlement archive backward with a persisted cursor. (3) Morning digest send-time is now a per-user preference. (4) Open data endpoints gained CSV output and category filtering. (5) The settled archive is searchable. (6) The Momentum Machine measures strong moves (15 cents+) as their own class. (7) deploy.ps1 ships in the repo, and llms.txt points AI crawlers at the open data with attribution terms.
Another big bundle: (1) Position Guard (Pro): opt in on the Sweat Board and get emailed within the hour when any open position moves your threshold or more, measured from our checked baseline, even while you sleep. (2) A live Elections 2026 board at /elections: the most active midterm markets grouped by race, refreshed automatically through November, paired with the field guide's wishcasting test. (3) Open data at /data: the measured calibration and momentum datasets as free CORS-open JSON with attribution. (4) The sitemap now lists every settled-market page dynamically. (5) Glossary terms cross-link to their market field guides.
Big bundle: (1) The Truth and Momentum machines now generate live social share images, so every posted link carries the current measured headline stat. (2) The settled archive gained category filtering and settled-before/after navigation between markets. (3) Quarterly estimated-tax reminder emails now fire in the ten days before each IRS deadline, with the safe-harbor math. (4) The Guardian's money-kept counter is now lifetime: the weekly job snapshots each month's loss-vs-budget so history survives Kalshi's three-month API horizon. (5) The forty knowledge-hub guides now cross-link to their matching market field guide.
Crypto Pulse now measures and displays each series' cadence (15-min, hourly, intra-day, daily, multi-day) from the median gap between its settlements, groups the series picker by cadence, and shows the measured settlement rhythm on the record card, because a 75% continuation rate means something completely different on a 15-minute ladder than on a daily market.
Fixed two plumbing bugs found during cron activation: the alert dispatcher was exiting early when no watchlist alerts were armed, silently skipping the Guardian, digest, and screener passes; and the settlement harvester's one-day straggler overlap nearly cancelled its own forward progress (net 25 seconds of coverage per run). Overlap is now one hour, the dispatcher always runs every pass, and the harvest response reports coveredThrough and behindDays so convergence is visible. Follow-up: the true watermark bug was Postgres ordering NULL close_times first in descending sorts, which made every run fall back to the 35-day floor; the watermark query now excludes NULLs.
New: the settled-market archive. Every harvested settlement gets its own permanent page: the outcome, the recorded price path into settlement, and what the day-before price implied, with a browsable index at /settled. It grows automatically with every daily harvest.
Screener rules are now shareable links, same as Strategy Lab backtests: copy a link and it opens with your exact filters loaded.
Landing page refresh: the front door now shows the live layer (Radar, Screener, alerts, Sweat Board, both research machines) alongside the Sharp Score pitch. The Trade Report gained a jump-to navigation for its major sections, and the knowledge hub and Field Guides now explain, on each page, which one you want.
Site reorganization: the top nav now leads with the trading loop (Radar, Screener, Trade Report) alongside Tools, Field Guides, and Glossary; the footer is grouped by intent (Trade, Research, Money & taxes, Learn & play); the Tools page is sectioned the same way instead of newest-first; and the homepage grid is ordered find, vet, hold, review, learn.
New: the Kalshi Screener. Build your own Radar: filter every open market by category, price band, volume, 24-hour move, and time to close; save up to ten rules to your account; and (Pro) get emailed within about ten minutes when a NEW market starts matching, once per market, no spam.
New: the Momentum Machine. Chase or fade, measured for the first time: we pair our recorded price paths with settled outcomes and report, per price zone, whether markets that just moved 8 cents kept going or snapped back, against a steady baseline, with verdicts gated behind real sample sizes.
New: Luck or skill? The Trade Report now runs the statistics on your record: given the exact prices you paid, how many wins did the market predict, how many did you deliver, and what are the odds the gap is luck. A z-score verdict with honest tiers, from indistinguishable-from-the-prices to strong evidence of edge (or leak).
Sweat Board: a same-event stacking warning now flags when multiple positions ride one game, correlation the independence-assuming simulation can't see.
Radar: markets that appeared since your last visit now carry a NEW badge.
New (Pro): the morning Radar digest. Opt in on the Radar page and the day's strongest signals arrive by email around 9am ET, once a day, before the crowd is looking.
Strategy Lab backtests are now shareable: every result has a copy-link button, and arriving links preload the exact rule so a claim comes with its receipts.
The Truth Machine now leads with a quotable measured stat, automatically picking the most striking well-sampled finding in the current dataset.
New: the Netflix Top 10 Tracker. Netflix's official weekly chart (the settlement source for Kalshi Netflix markets) with views, hours, and weeks-on-list, cross-referenced live against matching Kalshi entertainment markets with prices, check links, and watch stars. The first piece of underlying-data-beside-your-watchlist.
Field guide set complete at ten: Companies & Earnings (settlement-metric literacy, the option-implied move, GAAP vs adjusted traps) and Health & Pandemics (surveillance datasets, MMWR weeks, revision direction) join the other eight.
Three new field guides: Politics & Elections (midterm-season depth: the wishcasting problem, seat-math vs chamber-price arbitrage, certification timelines), Weather & Climate (the station-and-conventions game, forecast-horizon honesty), and Science & Tech (the delay base rate, settlement-word traps). Eight market families now covered.
The pricing page now sells what Pro actually is: value anchors, the two-persona pitch, and the Guardian-stays-free promise front and center.
Pro is now real: free plans get the top 5 Radar rows, 3 watchlist markets with on-page alerts, and the full Sweat Board positions view; Pro unlocks the whole Radar board, unlimited watchlist with offline email alerts, the night distribution, and one-click TurboTax .txf export. Guardian budget emails stay free for everyone, on purpose.
New: You vs. the market's truth. The Trade Report now overlays your hit rate at each entry-price band against what the price implied and against the platform-wide measured settle rate from the Truth Machine, so your edge zones and leak zones are named in one table.
Truth Machine: a data integrity check now compares the 24-hour price anchor against a strictly older 72-hour anchor and reports whether any extended-close contamination signature exists in the extreme buckets.
The homepage now shows the full flywheel: every tool and surface, one glance.
Fixed: field-guide flag icons rendered as escape codes instead of symbols, and a stray cent-sign code in the trade analyzer.
New: the weekly check-in email. If you run a Comeback Plan or a Guardian number with a connected key, Sunday's email now grades your week automatically: rule breaks and what they cost, plus your month against your number with the pace read.
Comeback Plans now sync to your account, so the plan you start on one device is the plan graded everywhere, including in the weekly email.
Guardian: a new money-kept counter totals what stayed in your pocket across months you finished inside your number.
New: Market Field Guides. Deep, opinionated guides for every Kalshi market family (sports, crypto, mentions, economic data, entertainment) with explicit red, orange, and green flag checklists, real mechanics, and where edges actually come from. Sports gets the heaviest treatment.
New: Crypto Pulse. The measured record of Kalshi's 15-minute and hourly crypto markets: actual up/down history, streaks, what happened after streaks (the anti-gambler's-fallacy table), up-rate by hour, and the house fee math.
New: the Bankroll Guardian. Set the amount you can genuinely afford to lose in a month and the site guards it automatically: live budget tracking against your real Kalshi results, a mid-month pace read, under-budget streaks, and emails at 50%, 80%, and 100% of your number, while there's still time to slow down.
New: the Strategy Lab. One-click backtests of simple Kalshi strategies against real settled outcomes at our recorded pre-event prices: pick a side, price band, and category and get the win rate, fee-adjusted ROI, and equity curve, with honest sample-size gating.
New: the Settlement Calendar. A day-by-day view of which top markets are scheduled to close this week, with live prices, economic data-day flags (CPI, Fed, jobs) derived from Kalshi’s own market schedule, and honest labeling that Kalshi frequently extends close times.
Truth Machine fix: calibration now anchors on the earlier of close time and expected expiration, since Kalshi extends close times past events; sampling after the outcome would have faked perfect calibration at the extremes.
New: the Truth Machine. We now harvest settled Kalshi outcomes daily and join them to our recorded price history to measure what prices really mean: how often 80¢ contracts actually settled YES, overall and by category. The dataset compounds every day.
New: Loss Rescue. If your year is net negative, the Trade Report now walks the Section 1256 three-year carryback: enter prior-year 1256 gains and see the estimated refund of taxes you already paid, plus the carryforward value of whatever remains, with the exact filing steps (Form 6781 box D, Form 1045 or 1040-X).
New: the Comeback Plan. The Trade Report now turns your losses into a personal rule set, each rule quantified from your own history ("this would have kept $X in your account"), then grades every future sync against it: rule breaks, what they cost, and clean streaks.
Fixed: the Sweat Board and Trade Report sync now recognize an existing Kalshi connection instead of asking you to connect again.
Watchlist alerts now email you: our server checks prices every 10 minutes even when you're offline and emails the moment a threshold is crossed, once per breach, re-armed when the price moves back inside your band.
TurboTax .txf export: the Trade Report's Section 1256 result now downloads as a file TurboTax Desktop imports directly (File > Import), no retyping.
New: Sweat Board. Your open Kalshi positions live on one board: real-time value, unrealized P&L, fee-adjusted cash-out math per position, a concentration warning, and 5,000 simulated settlements showing your chance of finishing green, the likely range, and best and worst case.
New: Kalshi Radar. An automated scanner over every open market that surfaces what's interesting right now, steam moves on real volume, coin-flips closing in hours, favorite and longshot zones, and week-long trend breaks, each with a plain-English reason and a heat score.
New: Trade Checker. The moment-of-decision tool: enter a price and your probability estimate for fee-adjusted expected value, the breakeven win rate, a Kelly-sized position, and a grade against your own Trade Report history in that price range, with live quote pull by ticker.
New: Kalshi Watchlist. Track any market with live prices, a 30-day sparkline, and on-page alerts when a price crosses a level you set, free, synced to your account.
The Trade Report can now auto-sync recent activity straight from your Kalshi account with a read-only key, on top of CSV import, and top-performing markets get a one-click ☆ to add them to your watchlist.
Trade Report: fixed a bug where exports with separate pre-fee and post-fee P&L columns could pick the wrong one; added a Fee Impact card, Leak Finder's "high fee drag" pattern, performance by hour of day, holding-time breakdown, a calendar journal, Process Score, and concentration-risk analysis.