The oldest argument at every trading desk: a market just moved, do you chase it or fade it? Everyone has a story. Nobody has data, because answering it requires recorded price paths joined to settled outcomes, and nobody records Kalshi’s. We do. This page pairs every settled market’s day-before price with its two-days-before price, classifies the move, and measures what actually settled.
A “move” is a change of 8¢ or more in that 24-hour window; “steady” markets are the baseline each zone is judged against. Updated hourly as new settlements are harvested.
Strongest measured pattern
Markets at 61–80¢ that had just risen 8¢+ settled YES 75.5%, vs 81.3% for steady ones.
A 5.7-point gap (94 movers vs 64 steady), which means recent rises in that zone have, so far, given back their move by settlement more often than not. Source: contracttax.com/momentum
Priced 1–20¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 4.7% YES (107)
After a rise of 8¢+—n=4collecting data
After a fall of 8¢+9.3%+4.7 ptsthe move faded
Priced 21–40¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 33.3% YES (57)
After a rise of 8¢+—n=19collecting data
After a fall of 8¢+38.7%+5.4 ptsthe move faded
Priced 41–60¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 55.2% YES (67)
After a rise of 8¢+—n=30collecting data
After a fall of 8¢+—n=31collecting data
Priced 61–80¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 81.3% YES (64)
After a rise of 8¢+75.5%-5.7 ptsthe move faded
After a fall of 8¢+—n=21collecting data
Priced 81–99¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 94.0% YES (50)
After a rise of 8¢+90.5%-3.5 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+—n=3collecting data
Strong moves, 15¢ or more
Big repricings are their own species; here the same measurement with a 15¢ threshold, only where samples allow.
Priced 1–20¢steady: 4.5%
After a 15¢+ fall10.5%+6.0 ptsthe move faded
Priced 21–40¢steady: 33.8%
After a 15¢+ fall35.8%+2.0 ptsno edge either way
Priced 61–80¢steady: 79.8%
After a 15¢+ rise76.5%-3.3 ptsno edge either way
Priced 81–99¢steady: 92.4%
After a 15¢+ rise90.2%-2.2 ptsno edge either way
Methodology, honestly
For every settled yes/no market, we take our recorded price nearest 24 hours before the event (within a 2-to-48-hour window) and nearest 48 hours before (within a 26-to-72-hour window), classify the difference as a rise (+8¢ or more), a fall (−8¢ or more), or steady, and compare settlement rates against the steady baseline in the same price zone. Cells report only at 40+ samples; verdicts require a 4-point gap before claiming anything.
Known limits, stated plainly: our snapshots cover markets that entered our scanner’s pool, which skews toward active, liquid markets; sparse paths can register as steady; and the anchor prices are observations, not tradable quotes, so gaps here are evidence about market behavior, not guaranteed executable edges. Fees are not included in these rates. Companion pages: the Truth Machine measures what standing prices mean; this machine measures what changing prices mean. Not financial advice.