The oldest argument at every trading desk: a market just moved, do you chase it or fade it? Everyone has a story. Nobody has data, because answering it requires recorded price paths joined to settled outcomes, and nobody records Kalshi’s. We do. This page pairs every settled market’s day-before price with its two-days-before price, classifies the move, and measures what actually settled.
A “move” is a change of 8¢ or more in that 24-hour window; “steady” markets are the baseline each zone is judged against. Updated hourly as new settlements are harvested.
Strongest measured pattern
Markets at 41–60¢ that had just risen 8¢+ settled YES 58.0%, vs 47.7% for steady ones.
A 10.3-point gap (193 movers vs 1,101 steady), which means recent rises in that zone have, so far, carried through to settlement more often than the standing price suggested. Source: contracttax.com/momentum
Priced 1–20¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 9.7% YES (911)
After a rise of 8¢+—n=12collecting data
After a fall of 8¢+9.9%+0.2 ptsno edge either way
Priced 21–40¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 30.3% YES (998)
After a rise of 8¢+26.4%-3.8 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+29.1%-1.1 ptsno edge either way
Priced 41–60¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 47.7% YES (1,101)
After a rise of 8¢+58.0%+10.3 ptsmomentum carried
After a fall of 8¢+50.5%+2.8 ptsno edge either way
Priced 61–80¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 74.1% YES (568)
After a rise of 8¢+70.3%-3.8 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+81.4%+7.2 ptsthe move faded
Priced 81–99¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 93.3% YES (461)
After a rise of 8¢+90.6%-2.7 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+—n=8collecting data
Strong moves, 15¢ or more
Big repricings are their own species; here the same measurement with a 15¢ threshold, only where samples allow.
Priced 1–20¢steady: 9.2%
After a 15¢+ fall10.9%+1.7 ptsno edge either way
Priced 21–40¢steady: 29.9%
After a 15¢+ rise23.8%-6.1 ptsthe move faded
After a 15¢+ fall29.8%-0.1 ptsno edge either way
Priced 41–60¢steady: 48.3%
After a 15¢+ rise58.2%+9.8 ptsmomentum carried
After a 15¢+ fall55.3%+6.9 ptsthe move faded
Priced 61–80¢steady: 74.1%
After a 15¢+ rise70.3%-3.7 ptsno edge either way
Priced 81–99¢steady: 93.0%
After a 15¢+ rise90.3%-2.8 ptsno edge either way
Methodology, honestly
For every settled yes/no market, we take our recorded price nearest 24 hours before the event (within a 2-to-48-hour window) and nearest 48 hours before (within a 26-to-72-hour window), classify the difference as a rise (+8¢ or more), a fall (−8¢ or more), or steady, and compare settlement rates against the steady baseline in the same price zone. Cells report only at 40+ samples; verdicts require a 4-point gap before claiming anything.
Known limits, stated plainly: our snapshots cover markets that entered our scanner’s pool, which skews toward active, liquid markets; sparse paths can register as steady; and the anchor prices are observations, not tradable quotes, so gaps here are evidence about market behavior, not guaranteed executable edges. Fees are not included in these rates. Companion pages: the Truth Machine measures what standing prices mean; this machine measures what changing prices mean. Not financial advice.