The oldest argument at every trading desk: a market just moved, do you chase it or fade it? Everyone has a story. Nobody has data, because answering it requires recorded price paths joined to settled outcomes, and nobody records Kalshi’s. We do. This page pairs every settled market’s day-before price with its two-days-before price, classifies the move, and measures what actually settled.
A “move” is a change of 8¢ or more in that 24-hour window; “steady” markets are the baseline each zone is judged against. Updated hourly as new settlements are harvested.
Strongest measured pattern
Markets at 61–80¢ that had just risen 8¢+ settled YES 71.5%, vs 77.4% for steady ones.
A 5.9-point gap (762 movers vs 1,303 steady), which means recent rises in that zone have, so far, given back their move by settlement more often than not. Source: contracttax.com/momentum
Priced 1–20¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 11.6% YES (2,106)
After a rise of 8¢+9.8%-1.9 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+8.9%-2.8 ptsno edge either way
Priced 21–40¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 32.3% YES (2,280)
After a rise of 8¢+29.3%-3.0 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+30.2%-2.2 ptsno edge either way
Priced 41–60¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 51.6% YES (2,528)
After a rise of 8¢+53.9%+2.3 ptsno edge either way
After a fall of 8¢+54.4%+2.8 ptsno edge either way
Priced 61–80¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 77.4% YES (1,303)
After a rise of 8¢+71.5%-5.9 ptsthe move faded
After a fall of 8¢+75.9%-1.5 ptsno edge either way
Priced 81–99¢ the day before settlement
steady baseline: 95.0% YES (1,188)
After a rise of 8¢+89.9%-5.1 ptsthe move faded
After a fall of 8¢+—n=20collecting data
Strong moves, 15¢ or more
Big repricings are their own species; here the same measurement with a 15¢ threshold, only where samples allow.
Priced 1–20¢steady: 11.2%
After a 15¢+ fall9.2%-2.1 ptsno edge either way
Priced 21–40¢steady: 32.1%
After a 15¢+ rise23.3%-8.9 ptsthe move faded
After a 15¢+ fall29.7%-2.5 ptsno edge either way
Priced 41–60¢steady: 52.3%
After a 15¢+ rise48.4%-3.9 ptsno edge either way
After a 15¢+ fall56.2%+3.9 ptsno edge either way
Priced 61–80¢steady: 76.6%
After a 15¢+ rise71.3%-5.2 ptsthe move faded
After a 15¢+ fall80.5%+3.9 ptsno edge either way
Priced 81–99¢steady: 94.3%
After a 15¢+ rise89.9%-4.4 ptsthe move faded
Methodology, honestly
For every settled yes/no market, we take our recorded price nearest 24 hours before the event (within a 2-to-48-hour window) and nearest 48 hours before (within a 26-to-72-hour window), classify the difference as a rise (+8¢ or more), a fall (−8¢ or more), or steady, and compare settlement rates against the steady baseline in the same price zone. Cells report only at 40+ samples; verdicts require a 4-point gap before claiming anything.
Known limits, stated plainly: our snapshots cover markets that entered our scanner’s pool, which skews toward active, liquid markets; sparse paths can register as steady; and the anchor prices are observations, not tradable quotes, so gaps here are evidence about market behavior, not guaranteed executable edges. Fees are not included in these rates. Companion pages: the Truth Machine measures what standing prices mean; this machine measures what changing prices mean. Not financial advice.