Kalshi shows you one price: what the crowd is willing to pay. We can show you a second one, and nobody else can, because it comes from a thing only we have: a measured record of what markets like this one actually settled at.
The logic is almost embarrassingly simple, which is what makes it strange that nobody does it. If sports markets priced 80–89¢ have settled YES 76% of the time, then an 80¢ sports contract in front of you is, on the evidence, worth about 76¢. The crowd is charging 80. That 4-cent gap is not an opinion, a model, or a vibe. It is the difference between what this kind of contract costs and what this kind of contract has been worth.
What this is not
Read this before you read the board, because it is the honest limit of the method. A band average is not a forecast for the single market in front of you. Some 80¢ sports contracts are locks and some are landmines, and this cannot tell them apart. It does not know that the star player is injured, and it has not read the news. What it can tell you is what the strategy of systematically buying this kind of contract has actually returned, which is the thing people are really doing when they buy them. Anyone claiming to price your specific market from historical averages is selling you something. We are telling you what the evidence says about the class it belongs to, and then getting out of your way.
Pricing every market against our settled record…
Does it actually work?
Fair question, and one almost nobody in this space will answer. Every market this board flags is written down before it settles, and when it settles the result is scored and published, fees included, losers included. If the method does not work, that page will say so.
1. The record. We snapshot the prices of live Kalshi markets before their events resolve, and we archive every market that settles. Joining the two gives a measured settle rate for every category and ten-cent price band. Only prices from a real trade or a two-sided book are ever recorded; a placeholder quote run through this engine would manufacture an edge out of nothing. 2. The second price. A live market’s fair value is the measured settle rate for its category and band. We use the ask where we have it, because that is what buying actually costs you, not the mid. 3. The fee. Kalshi’s taker fee is netted off before anything is called an edge. A 3-cent apparent edge that costs 2 cents to capture is a 1-cent edge, and a great many “edges” do not survive this step. That is the point of it. 4. The refusal. Below 40 settled markets in a category and band, we fall back to the all-market curve and label it as weaker evidence. Below 150 even there, we say we do not know. A fair value computed from six markets is not a fair value, it is a number with a decimal point.
The curves behind this live in the Truth Machine, and each category’s own curve is published at calibration by category. To find out whether you beat the curve for the categories you actually trade, run your history through the free Trade Report. Educational, not financial advice, and past settle rates are not a promise about the next market.
Found something mispriced? An edge you size wrong is an edge you give back: