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Prediction journal

Write down your probability before a market resolves. When it settles, this grades you automatically and builds a calibration curve, the honest answer to whether your 70% calls actually happen 70% of the time, and whether your estimate beat the market’s price. It’s the forecasting skill the Edge Lab can’t see, because it lives in the trades you didn’t make yet.

Log a prediction
Your estimate: the chance this happens50%
Loading your journal\u2026

Common questions

What is a prediction journal?
A prediction journal is a record of your probability estimates made before events resolve. By logging what you thought would happen and then checking the outcomes, you can measure your calibration and accuracy over time, the core skill of a prediction-market trader.
How does calibration tracking work?
You log your probability for a market before it settles. When it resolves, the prediction is graded against the outcome. Across many predictions, a calibration curve shows whether your stated probabilities match reality, for example whether your 70% calls actually happen about 70% of the time.
What is a good Brier score?
The Brier score is the average squared error between your probabilities and outcomes, from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst); always guessing 50% scores 0.25. Below about 0.18 is solid and below 0.12 is sharp for genuinely uncertain questions.
Does it cost anything?
No. The prediction journal is free and your predictions are private to your account. It grades your calls automatically against settled market data.