How can I tell if a Kalshi market is overpriced?

Compare what it costs with what markets like it have actually settled at. Paste any Kalshi market link into ContractTax's checker and it looks up the live price, finds the measured settle rate for that market's category and price band from a record of settled Kalshi markets, subtracts the taker fee, and tells you whether the crowd appears to be overcharging. It is free and needs no account.

Is a Kalshi price the same as the real probability?

Not exactly. A price is the crowd's estimate, and crowds are systematically off in measurable ways: cheap contracts have historically settled less often than their price implied, and the size of that bias differs by category. Measuring what prices actually delivered is the only way to know how far off they tend to be.

Is this market overpriced?

Paste any Kalshi market. We will look up the live price, then tell you what markets like this one have actually gone on to settle at, from our own record of settled markets. Fees included, no account, no upload.

Paste a Kalshi market link, or type its ticker

Free, no account, no upload. We look up the live price and compare it with what markets like it have actually settled at.

What this can and cannot tell you

It tells you what this kind of contract has been worth: a market in this category, priced in this band, across every settled market we recorded a price for. That is a real, measured number, and it is the closest thing to an evidence-based fair value that exists. What it cannot do is read the news. A band average does not know the star player is injured, and some 80¢ contracts are locks while others are landmines. If we do not hold enough settled history to judge a market honestly, we say so rather than inventing a figure. Our own track record on these calls, losers included, is published at the receipts.

Want the whole exchange scored at once? The Fair Value Board ranks every live market by how far its price sits from what markets like it delivered. The curves behind it are in the Truth Machine. Educational, not financial advice.

If the verdict was that the price is worth taking, the next two questions are what it pays and how much to put on it:

Expected value (EV) calculator

Find your edge: compare your probability to the price.

Kalshi payout calculator

See your cost, payout, profit, and ROI on a trade.

Position size calculator

Size a trade by bankroll percent or the Kelly criterion.

Free, no signup, and nothing you type leaves your browser. Every calculator →