Is this Bitcoin or Ethereum market actually worth the price?
Crypto Twitter tells you where the price is going. Nobody tells you whether bets like that have actually been paying. We can, because we write the price of every crypto market down before expiry, archive how it settles, and join the two. These markets are strike ladders on a clock: Bitcoin above a threshold by an hour, a day, a date, with new rungs listing around the clock. Two structural facts worth more than any price target: adjacent rungs must be coherent (above $100k can never be cheaper than above $110k), and when a thin ladder briefly is not, our Impossible Prices scanner sees it. And round numbers attract conviction, which is exactly where prices get pushed past reality. Below: the live board scored against the record, and the record itself.
Measured, not asserted
Crypto favourites on Kalshi have settled YES less often than their price implied.
Across 78 settled crypto markets priced 75c and up, the price implied 86.9% and they actually settled YES 67.9% of the time, a gap of 19.0 points. At the other end, longshots under 25c implied 12.7% and delivered 11.2%. Before you trade on that, read the fee note below: a gap smaller than the fee is not an edge.
“Worth” is what settled sports markets in the same price band actually paid, with Kalshi’s taker fee already deducted. It is a statement about this kind of contract, not a forecast of this particular expiry: a band average does not know what the tape is doing right now. Markets we cannot price honestly say so rather than being quietly filled with a guess. Full method on the Fair Value Board.
What a crypto price has actually been worth
Every settled crypto market we recorded a pre-expiry price for, grouped by that price. 290 observations and counting.
Price paid
Implied
Actually won
Gap
Sample
0-9c
5%
5.3%
+0.3
57
10-19c
15%
5.0%
-10.0
40
20-29c
25%
32.1%
+7.1
28
30-39c
35%
15.4%
-19.6
26
40-49c
45%
36.0%
-9.0
25
60-69c
65%
42.9%
-22.1
21
70-79c
75%
42.9%
-32.1
21
80-89c
85%
57.1%
-27.9
21
90-99c
95%
88.9%
-6.1
36
Read the grey gaps as zero. A gap is only coloured when it is bigger than the fee you would pay at that price, because an edge smaller than the fee is not an edge, it is a donation with extra steps. That single rule is why this table is shorter on claims than most of the internet.
The conviction tax
Buying the strike that matches your price target, at whatever the ask is, has cost about 7.1¢ per contract on this exchange.
Measured, not moralised: across 36 settled crypto markets priced 50¢ and up, buying blind paid the price-versus-reality gap (6.1¢) plus the average taker fee (1.0¢) on every contract. That is the cost of the habit, in cents, before the candle even closes. Three ways to shrink it without changing your thesis at all: rest a limit order instead of hitting the ask (the fee on a filled resting order is zero), check the price against the record first with the free checker, and when you do buy, size it like an estimate rather than a certainty, which the checker now does for you. Conviction is free on the chart. It only costs money at the ask.
The thing an exchange does that a chart cannot
Stacking BTC with ETH? They move together. Grade it first.
Crypto combos stack naturally: a Bitcoin strike, an Ethereum strike, maybe a date. But BTC and ETH are heavily correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent quietly misprices the ticket in the house’s favour. Our combo builder grades the stack against measured reality, flags the correlation, and, because this is an exchange, computes the hedge that locks profit once your first strike lands.
Free, no signup, and nothing you type leaves your browser. Every calculator →
Common questions
How do Kalshi Bitcoin markets work?
They are strike ladders on a clock: yes/no contracts on whether Bitcoin (or Ethereum) is above a threshold at a specific time, from 15-minute expiries to daily and dated strikes. Each rung is its own market with its own price, and the ladder together sketches the crowd's probability curve for where the price lands. You are not betting a vibe about crypto; you are betting a specific level at a specific time for a specific price.
Are Kalshi crypto markets accurate?
We measure it rather than guess: we record every rung's price before expiry, archive what settled, and join the two. The curve on this page is that record. Short-dated crypto ladders trade fast and thin at the tails, which cuts both ways: more noise, and more genuinely mispriced rungs for whoever checks the record before buying.
Is trading Kalshi crypto markets better than holding coins or perps?
Different products. Holding coins is open-ended price exposure; perps add leverage and liquidation risk. An event contract has a fixed worst case (what you paid) and a fixed best case ($1), settles at a known time, and is regulated by the CFTC. It is a defined-risk way to express a dated view, not a replacement for a portfolio, and nothing here is advice.
What does Kalshi charge on a crypto trade?
The taker fee is roughly 7 percent of price times one minus price, rounded up, peaking near 50c, and near-the-money rungs live exactly there. Resting limit orders that get filled pay no fee, which matters double in fast ladders where crossing the spread AND paying the fee turns a good read into a losing trade.
Can I combine crypto markets into a combo?
Yes, by holding several contracts at once, but Bitcoin and Ethereum strikes are heavily correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent misprices the ticket. Our combo builder flags correlated legs and grades the stack against the measured record instead of against hope.