Crypto Twitter tells you where the price is going. Nobody tells you whether bets like that have actually been paying. We can, because we write the price of every crypto market down before expiry, archive how it settles, and join the two. These markets are strike ladders on a clock: Bitcoin above a threshold by an hour, a day, a date, with new rungs listing around the clock. Two structural facts worth more than any price target: adjacent rungs must be coherent (above $100k can never be cheaper than above $110k), and when a thin ladder briefly is not, our Impossible Prices scanner sees it. And round numbers attract conviction, which is exactly where prices get pushed past reality. Below: the live board scored against the record, and the record itself.
“Worth” is what settled sports markets in the same price band actually paid, with Kalshi’s taker fee already deducted. It is a statement about
this kind of contract, not a forecast of this particular expiry: a band average does not know what the tape is doing right now. Markets we cannot price honestly say so rather than being quietly filled with a guess. Full method on the
Fair Value Board.
What a crypto price has actually been worth
Every settled crypto market we recorded a pre-expiry price for, grouped by that price. 203 observations and counting.
| Price paid | Implied | Actually won | Gap | Sample |
|---|
| 0-9c | 5% | 6.7% | +1.7 | 45 |
| 10-19c | 15% | 7.1% | -7.9 | 28 |
| 90-99c | 95% | 85.2% | -9.8 | 27 |
Read the grey gaps as zero. A gap is only coloured when it is bigger than the fee you would pay at that price, because an edge smaller than the fee is not an edge, it is a donation with extra steps. That single rule is why this table is shorter on claims than most of the internet.
The thing an exchange does that a chart cannot
Stacking BTC with ETH? They move together. Grade it first.
Crypto combos stack naturally: a Bitcoin strike, an Ethereum strike, maybe a date. But BTC and ETH are heavily correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent quietly misprices the ticket in the house’s favour. Our combo builder grades the stack against measured reality, flags the correlation, and, because this is an exchange, computes the hedge that locks profit once your first strike lands.
Common questions
How do Kalshi Bitcoin markets work?
They are strike ladders on a clock: yes/no contracts on whether Bitcoin (or Ethereum) is above a threshold at a specific time, from 15-minute expiries to daily and dated strikes. Each rung is its own market with its own price, and the ladder together sketches the crowd's probability curve for where the price lands. You are not betting a vibe about crypto; you are betting a specific level at a specific time for a specific price.
Are Kalshi crypto markets accurate?
We measure it rather than guess: we record every rung's price before expiry, archive what settled, and join the two. The curve on this page is that record. Short-dated crypto ladders trade fast and thin at the tails, which cuts both ways: more noise, and more genuinely mispriced rungs for whoever checks the record before buying.
Is trading Kalshi crypto markets better than holding coins or perps?
Different products. Holding coins is open-ended price exposure; perps add leverage and liquidation risk. An event contract has a fixed worst case (what you paid) and a fixed best case ($1), settles at a known time, and is regulated by the CFTC. It is a defined-risk way to express a dated view, not a replacement for a portfolio, and nothing here is advice.
What does Kalshi charge on a crypto trade?
The taker fee is roughly 7 percent of price times one minus price, rounded up, peaking near 50c, and near-the-money rungs live exactly there. Resting limit orders that get filled pay no fee, which matters double in fast ladders where crossing the spread AND paying the fee turns a good read into a losing trade.
Can I combine crypto markets into a combo?
Yes, by holding several contracts at once, but Bitcoin and Ethereum strikes are heavily correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent misprices the ticket. Our combo builder flags correlated legs and grades the stack against the measured record instead of against hope.