A Kalshi crypto contract at 70¢ is a claim that the thing happens 70% of the time. That is a forecast, not a promise, and the only way to know what it is really worth is to write down the price before the event and check what happened afterwards. So that is what we do, on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the short-dated price ladders.
Not enough settled data yet
We have only 80 settled crypto markets with a recorded pre-event price so far, which is not enough to say anything honest about how accurate this category is. We could compute a number from what we have. It would look authoritative and it would be noise, so we are not going to. The dataset grows every day as recorded markets settle. In the meantime, the full Truth Machine has the all-category curve, which does have the sample to say something real.
How this is measured
We snapshot the price of live Kalshi markets before their events resolve, and we archive every market that settles. Joining those two records gives the only thing that answers this question honestly: what a price said, and what then happened. The numbers on this page are anchored on prices recorded about a day before each event. No survey, no model, no vibes. Markets are grouped into ten-cent bands and each band’s real settle rate is compared with the rate its price implied. We only record prices that came from a real trade or a two-sided market, never a placeholder, because a fabricated price poisons the whole dataset.
The all-category curve, the contamination checks, and the methodology in full live in the Truth Machine. To test whether your own entries beat the band you bought into, run your history through the free Trade Report. Educational, not financial advice.