The State of Kalshi Flipping

Preview with sample data. The figures below are illustrative. The live report publishes here automatically once 25 traders opt into the public leaderboard.

Here is what the State of Kalshi report shows: median Sharp Score, the win-rate distribution, ROI, and how many traders are net profitable. The numbers below are an illustrative preview until the live, anonymized dataset unlocks.

TRADERS ANALYZED

25

TRADES TRACKED

18,420

MEDIAN SHARP SCORE

53

avg 51

SHARE PROFITABLE

41%

MEDIAN WIN RATE

52%

MEDIAN ROI

-1.4%

Win-rate distribution

Under 45%26%

45 to 50%31%

50 to 55%28%

55% and up15%

Be part of the real dataset

Upload your trade history, it parses in your browser, then opt into the public leaderboard to see where you actually rank against the field.

Get your Sharp Score

Methodology

Figures are aggregated from traders who connected their Kalshi history to ContractTax and opted into the public leaderboard. Raw trades never leave the browser unencrypted, only summary statistics are stored, and nothing here identifies an individual trader. The Sharp Score is a 0 to 100 rating that weights skill, profitability, and discipline rather than raw profit, so a small disciplined account can outrank a lucky large one.

This page reflects an opt-in sample of active traders and is not a random sample of all Kalshi users. Treat it as a benchmark, not a census.