Is this CPI, Fed, or jobs market actually worth the price?
Economics markets are how you bet on a number before the government prints it: CPI, the Fed, payrolls, GDP. They come as strike ladders, a row of contracts (CPI above 3.1, above 3.2, above 3.3...) that together sketch the market’s whole probability curve for one print. We write those prices down before the print, archive how they settle, and join the two. Below: the live board scored against that record, and the record itself. One structural note worth more than most macro takes: adjacent rungs of a ladder must be coherent (above 3.1 can never be cheaper than above 3.2), and when a thin ladder briefly is not, that is free money for whoever notices; our Impossible Prices scanner watches for exactly that.
Measured, not asserted
Economics favourites on Kalshi have settled YES less often than their price implied.
Across 149 settled economics markets priced 75c and up, the price implied 85.6% and they actually settled YES 82.6% of the time, a gap of 3.1 points. At the other end, longshots under 25c implied 12.7% and delivered 18.8%. Before you trade on that, read the fee note below: a gap smaller than the fee is not an edge.
Live economics markets, priced against the record
updated 4:13:02 PM
No economics markets are open on the board right now. They fill in around the data calendar: CPI mornings, FOMC afternoons, and jobs Fridays are when this board is busiest. In the meantime, the measured sports curve does not go anywhere.
What an economics price has actually been worth
Every settled economics market we recorded a pre-print price for, grouped by that price. 504 observations and counting.
Price paid
Implied
Actually won
Gap
Sample
0-9c
5%
8.7%
+3.7
69
10-19c
15%
30.0%
+15.0
20
20-29c
25%
30.8%
+5.8
39
30-39c
35%
53.3%
+18.3
45
40-49c
45%
64.5%
+19.5
62
50-59c
55%
75.8%
+20.8
66
60-69c
65%
75.9%
+10.9
54
70-79c
75%
87.2%
+12.2
47
80-89c
85%
76.1%
-8.9
46
90-99c
95%
83.9%
-11.1
56
Read the grey gaps as zero. A gap is only coloured when it is bigger than the fee you would pay at that price, because an edge smaller than the fee is not an edge, it is a donation with extra steps. That single rule is why this table is shorter on claims than most of the internet.
The conviction tax
Buying the strike that matches your macro take, at whatever the price is, has cost about roughly nothing beyond the fee on this exchange.
Measured, not moralised: across 269 settled economics markets priced 50¢ and up, buying blind paid the price-versus-reality gap (-5.6¢) plus the average taker fee (1.6¢) on every contract. That is the cost of the habit, in cents, before the number even prints. Three ways to shrink it without changing your macro view at all: rest a limit order instead of hitting the ask (the fee on a filled resting order is zero), check the price against the record first with the free checker, and when you do buy, size it like an estimate rather than a certainty, which the checker now does for you. Having a view on inflation is free. It only costs money at the ask.
The thing a forecast will not do for you
Stacking CPI with the Fed? Grade the combo before you pay for it.
Macro bets stack naturally: a CPI print, then a Fed decision priced off it. But stacked economics legs are correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent quietly misprices the ticket. Our combo builder grades the stack against measured reality, flags the correlation, and, because this is an exchange, computes the hedge that locks profit once the first print lands your way.
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Common questions
How do Kalshi CPI and Fed markets work?
They are strike ladders: a row of yes/no contracts on the same print (CPI above 3.1 percent, above 3.2, above 3.3). Each rung is its own market with its own price, and together they sketch the crowd's probability curve for the number. You are not betting a vague vibe about inflation; you are betting a specific threshold at a specific price.
Are Kalshi economics markets accurate?
We measure it rather than guess: we record every rung's price before the print, archive what settled, and join the two. The curve on this page is that record. These markets attract people who do this professionally, so prices are sharper than sports near the money, but thin rungs at the tails can drift from reality, which is where checking before buying earns its keep.
When do economics markets settle?
On the data calendar. CPI prints on a scheduled morning, the Fed decides on scheduled afternoons, payrolls land on the first Friday. Unlike a game, you know the settlement moment weeks ahead, which makes these the most plannable markets on the exchange, and the easiest to accidentally hold through a print you forgot about.
What does Kalshi charge on an economics trade?
The taker fee is roughly 7 percent of price times one-minus-price, rounded up, peaking near 50c, and the near-the-money rungs of a ladder live exactly there, so fees bite these markets hardest. Resting orders that get filled pay no fee, which matters more here than anywhere else on the exchange.
Can I combine economics markets into a combo?
Yes, by holding several contracts at once, but be careful: legs on the same print or on economically linked prints (CPI and a Fed decision) are correlated, and multiplying their prices as if independent misprices the ticket. Our combo builder flags same-event legs and grades the stack against measured reality.