Below is the full Edge Lab, unlocked, running on a sample trader with 670 trades over eight months. Nothing here is blurred, this is exactly what the paid report looks like. Read the story it tells: a trader who is down overall, yet has a real, statistically-proven edge he’s giving back through a favorites leak, tilt, and weekend churn.
SAMPLE DATA · NOT A REAL ACCOUNT
This is a sample trader. What’s hiding in yours?
Upload your Kalshi trade history and the Edge Lab runs the same analysis on your real record in seconds, free to start. The tilt check and fee drag are always free; the skill test, edge map, sizing counterfactual, and day-of-week breakdown are Pro.
the questions every trader asks, answered from your own record
Is your edge real, or variance?
-0.9 ptsvs the prices you paid, across 670 priced trades
You won 352; a zero-edge trader paying your exact prices expects 358. Chance of a record at least this good by pure luck: 68.7%.
Your record is indistinguishable from fair-odds coin flips so far (z = -0.49). Neither skill nor anti-skill is proven; treat every bet as paying the market's price.
Where it lives, by price band
20-39¢ · 107 trades+11.6 ptsreal edge
Coin flips (40-59¢) · 409 trades-3.6 ptsnoise so far
60-79¢ · 70 trades+13.3 ptsreal edge
Favorites (80-99¢) · 84 trades-15.5 ptsreal leak
“Real” means significant at the 90% level within that band. Lean into the green rows; the red rows are where flat avoidance beats any market read.
Tilt check: do you bet bigger after losing?
AVG SIZE AFTER A LOSS
33
AFTER A WIN
23
P&L OF AFTER-LOSS TRADES
-$676
Your average stake jumps 40% right after a loss, and those chase trades have cost you $676 so far. That pattern is tilt, and it is the single most fixable leak in trading: pre-commit your size before the session, or set a cooling-off rule after any loss. The free Bankroll Guardian can email you before a bad night compounds.
Streak effect: how sharp are you after a win vs a loss?
PER-CONTRACT AFTER A LOSS
-6.5¢
AFTER A WIN
-2.1¢
TOTAL FROM AFTER-LOSS TRADES
-$676
Your trades right after a loss earn 4.5¢ less per contract than trades after a win, and those after-loss trades are down $676 overall. That's the revenge-trading signature: your reads get worse when you're trying to win money back. A short cooling-off rule after any loss is the fix, and it's free.
Edge trend: are you getting better or worse?
FIRST 335 TRADES · PER CONTRACT
-5.8¢
LAST 335 TRADES
-3.4¢
TREND
+2.4¢
Your per-contract results are steady between halves (-5.8¢ then -3.4¢). Consistency across time is itself evidence your results aren’t a hot streak.
What if you had sized every trade the same?
YOUR ACTUAL P&L
-$859
FLAT-SIZED (28/TRADE)
-$452
YOUR SIZING DECISIONS
-$407
Sizing is costing you $407 versus simply betting the same amount every time: your biggest bets are your worst ones. Flat sizing is the free upgrade here, no market skill required.
When do you actually make money?
-$530Sun
-$114Mon
-$62Tue
-$27Wed
-$128Thu
-$69Fri
+$71Sat
Your book is a tale of two weeks: Saturday is your best day (+$71) and Sunday your worst (-$530). If the losing day has no edge behind it, cutting it is free money, most weekday-vs-weekend gaps are churn, not skill.
Fee drag
TOTAL FEES PAID
$280
PER CONTRACT
1.5¢
Measured across 670 trades with fee data. Fees compound quietly; resting orders instead of taking keeps this number down.
Methodology: the skill test compares your wins to a zero-edge trader paying your exact prices (normal approximation to the Poisson-binomial; entry price = implied win probability of the side held). Tilt compares average contracts on trades immediately following losses vs wins. The counterfactual rescales each trade to your average size. Educational analytics, not financial advice.
This is a sample trader. What’s hiding in yours?
Upload your Kalshi trade history and the Edge Lab runs the same analysis on your real record in seconds, free to start. The tilt check and fee drag are always free; the skill test, edge map, sizing counterfactual, and day-of-week breakdown are Pro.