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Edge

Is this actually a good bet?

Every page here is built on our own record of settled Kalshi markets: we write down what a market cost before the event, we archive what happened, and we join the two. That is the only honest way to answer the questions traders actually have, and it is why none of this exists anywhere else.

Looking for what is happening right now instead? That is the live board.

Start here
Is this market overpriced? →
Paste any market. We tell you what markets like it have actually settled at. Free, no account.
The Fair Value Board →
Kalshi shows one price. We show a second: what markets like it actually settled at, fees netted off.
The Receipts →
Every call we made, written down before it settled, then scored. Losers included.
Trade Checker →
Vet a single market before you buy it: the price, the fee, and what it is really worth.
Truth Machine →
What each price level actually settled at. The favourite-longshot bias, quantified.
The rest of the measured work
Accuracy by category →
Kalshi is a different forecaster depending on what it forecasts. Each subject on its own curve.
Kalshi vs Polymarket →
The same question on two exchanges. Where the crowds disagree, and which one turns out right.
Fees: maker vs taker →
The fee is a tax on impatience. Your real breakeven, and what crossing the spread costs a year.
Cost of trading →
The fee is the small part. What a round trip really costs you, spread and all, by category.
The Bond Desk →
Near-settled favourites priced as bonds, rated AAA to B on their measured default rate.
Value scanner →
One-winner fields ranked by how tightly they are priced. Where the vig is thin.
Impossible prices →
Ladders where a higher strike costs more than a lower one. Logically impossible, and harvestable.
The Spread Board →
Kalshi charges no maker fee. Post inside a wide spread and earn it instead of paying it.
Momentum Machine →
What actually happens after a market moves: chase it, or fade it.
Strategy Lab →
Backtest a simple rule against every settled market we recorded a price for.
Implied vs realized →
Invert a crypto ladder into the volatility it is pricing, and compare it with reality.
Settled archive →
Every market we watched settle, searchable, with its price path.
State of Kalshi →
Exchange-wide data and trends, measured rather than asserted.
Open data →
Free JSON and CSV of the datasets behind these pages. Check our work.
Make it a habit
The daily Kalshi page →
Call five markets in Pick’em, play the daily challenge, and see today’s movers, one page, every day.

Common questions

Where can I see live Kalshi odds?
The live Terminal shows the whole board on one screen, and the odds-by-category pages break it down by politics, economics, sports, crypto, and more. Prices are shown as implied probabilities and update through the day.
What does the Truth Machine measure?
It measures what Kalshi markets at each price level actually settled at, from our own harvested history. It quantifies the favorite-longshot bias, showing whether contracts at, say, 80 cents really win about 80% of the time.
How do I find mispriced Kalshi markets?
The Value Scanner ranks one-winner events by how tightly they're priced, surfacing low-vig and loosely priced markets. It's faster than reading the whole board and points you at where edge is available.
Do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same events?
Often, yes. The two exchanges have different user bases, fees, and capital, so the same question can be priced several cents apart. The Kalshi vs Polymarket board matches live markets across both venues and publishes the gap, with a confidence score on every pairing. It also records both venues' prices so that, once the markets settle, we can measure which exchange actually forecasts better.
Is this data official Kalshi data?
The live prices come from Kalshi's public API. The research pages are computed from settled outcomes we harvest and store, so the calibration, momentum, and backtest results are measured from real history, not estimates.