Every site in this space tells you it has found an edge. Almost none of them will tell you what happened next, because publishing your own track record is only appealing when it is good, and you do not find out which it is until you publish it.
So here is ours. Every market the Fair Value Board flags as mispriced gets written down before the event settles. When it settles, the result lands on this page automatically, and we do not get a vote on what it says. Winners, losers, and the honest total after fees.
Why this page might embarrass us
It genuinely might, and that is the point. The fair-value method rests on a simple claim: that markets which look like ones that have historically underperformed their price will keep doing so. That claim is testable, and if it is wrong, this page will say so in plain language rather than quietly disappearing. There is a specific and likely outcome worth naming in advance: the mispricings are real, and the taker fee eats them anyway. If that is what the data shows, it is still the most useful thing we could tell you, because it means the edge is not in picking better, it is in not paying the fee.
Scoring every call we have made…
The rules we scored ourselves by
Recorded in advance. A signal is written to the database when the board flags it, before anyone knows the outcome. That is what makes this impossible to fake retroactively, and it is the difference between a track record and a highlight reel. Every call counts. We score all of them, not the ones that look good. The first time we flag a market is the one that counts, because flagging something an hour before it settles is not a prediction. Fees come off. P&L assumes you bought one contract at the price shown and paid Kalshi’s taker fee. A gross edge that the fee eats is not an edge. Both directions are traded. When we call a market overpriced, the trade is buying NO, and it is scored at the NO price and the NO fee. We do not get credit for being “directionally right” on a trade nobody could place. Under 50 settled calls we say nothing. A smaller sample cannot separate an edge from luck, and dressing noise up as a result would make this page the exact thing it exists to be an alternative to.
This is why the Pro pitch is different here
Most prediction-market tools ask you to take their edge on faith. We would rather hand you the ledger and let you decide. Pro is $19 a month and gives you the full board rather than the top five, alerts when a market crosses an edge threshold, lock alerts on live parlays, and the analysis layer on your own trade history. If the record above does not convince you, do not buy it. That is a genuinely rare sentence in this industry, and we mean it.
The method behind the calls is on the Fair Value Board, and the settled record it is built on is the Truth Machine. Past results are not a promise about the next market, and nothing here is financial advice.