ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosLearn
☆

How calibrated are you?

Being right matters less than knowing how right you are. Rate how likely each of these 12 statements is to be true, then see your calibration, whether your confident calls actually pan out, and your Brier score. It’s the exact skill that separates traders who make money from those who don’t. Takes about two minutes, no signup.

Statement 1 of 12
Antarctica is the largest desert in the world.
How likely is this TRUE?50%
Definitely falseCoin flipDefinitely true

Common questions

What is a calibration test?
A calibration test measures whether your confidence matches reality. You rate how likely each statement is to be true, and the test checks whether the things you were, say, 80% sure about turned out true about 80% of the time. Good calibration means your confidence is trustworthy.
What is a good Brier score on this test?
The Brier score is the average squared gap between your probabilities and the truth, where lower is better and 0.25 is what pure 50/50 guessing gives. On this test, below about 0.18 is well-calibrated and below 0.12 is sharp.
What does it mean to be overconfident?
Overconfidence means stating probabilities that are too extreme, being 90% sure when 70% is the honest number. It's the most common forecasting bias, and this test flags it when your high-confidence answers turn out wrong more often than your confidence implied.
How can I get better calibrated?
Practice assigning probabilities and check them against outcomes, notice where you're systematically over- or under-confident, and correct it. Tracking real predictions over time in a prediction journal is the most effective way to improve.