Expected value is the math that tells you whether a trade is worth making. If your honest estimate of the true probability is higher than the price implies, you have positive expected value. This calculator finds your edge in seconds.
Enter your estimated probability and the market price below.
YOUR EDGE
+15.0¢
per contract, before fees
EXPECTED VALUE
$13.53
after estimated fee
VERDICT
+EV
edge in your favor
Your edge is your estimated probability minus the price. Positive expected value is a long-run average, not a guarantee on any single trade, and it only holds if your estimate genuinely beats the market’s. Educational only, not financial advice.
What this measures
Your edge is simply your estimated probability minus the price. Buy a 30 cent contract you believe is really worth 45 cents and you have a 15 cent edge per contract. Positive expected value means the trade pays off on average over many repetitions.
The honest caveat
Positive expected value is a long-run statement, not a promise about the next trade. Even a strong edge loses plenty of individual bets, and fees eat into thin edges. The tool subtracts an estimated fee so your edge is measured after costs.
FAQ
How do I calculate expected value on Kalshi?
Subtract the price from your estimated true probability. That difference is your edge per contract. This tool multiplies it by your size and subtracts an estimated fee.
What is a good edge on Kalshi?
Any genuine positive edge after fees is good, but it must be real. Your estimate has to actually beat the market's, which already reflects many people's views.
Does positive EV guarantee profit?
No. It is a long-run average. Even strong positive-EV trades lose individual bets, so position sizing and discipline matter as much as the edge itself.
Stop calculating one trade at a time
ContractTax does this across your whole Kalshi history: real P&L, a Sharp Score that rates your edge, and your tax numbers under every treatment.
These tools are for education and estimation only, not financial or tax advice. Fee estimates use Kalshi’s standard formula and may differ from your actual fees.