Your contract has moved your way and you are up on paper. Do you sell now and bank it, or hold to settlement for the full dollar? This calculator compares the two: the certain profit you can lock in today, minus the exit fee, against the expected value of holding to the end.
Enter your entry price, the current price, and how many contracts you hold. Optionally add your own estimate of the true chance; if you leave it blank, the tool assumes the current price is fair.
Holding has the higher expected value ($30.00 vs $28.53 locked). You skip the exit fee, but you ride the full outcome, all or nothing at settlement.
SELL NOW (LOCKED)
$28.53
after $1.47 exit fee
HOLD (EXPECTED)
$30.00
if price is fair
HOLD: IF IT WINS
$60.00
HOLD: IF IT LOSES
-$40.00
YOUR EDGE VS MARKET
+0%
true chance minus price
Selling now is a taker order, so it pays an exit fee; settlement is free. If you think the current price is fair, holding wins on fees alone but carries full variance. Selling only beats holding when you believe the contract is overpriced by more than the fee, or when locking in certainty is worth more to you than the last bit of expected value.
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The real tradeoff
Selling now is a taker order, so it pays a fee; holding to settlement is free. If you believe the current price is fair, holding actually wins on expected value because you skip that exit fee, but you take on full variance: you either get the whole dollar or nothing.
Selling makes sense when you think the market has overshot, when the contract is now priced above what you believe is the true chance, or simply when locking in a sure profit is worth more to you than squeezing out the last bit of expected value.
Why certainty has value
Expected value is not everything. If the position is large relative to your bankroll, taking a guaranteed profit can be the disciplined move even when holding has a slightly higher average, because one bad settlement can do real damage. Sizing and risk tolerance belong in the decision, not just the EV.
FAQ
Should I sell my Kalshi contract early or hold?
If you think the current price is fair, holding has a small edge because you avoid the exit fee, but it carries full all-or-nothing variance. Sell when you believe the contract is now overpriced versus the true chance, or when banking a certain profit matters more than the last sliver of expected value.
Is there a fee to sell on Kalshi?
Selling before settlement is typically a taker order and pays a trading fee, which this calculator subtracts. Letting a contract settle on its own does not incur that trading fee.
What is the expected value of holding?
It is your estimated true chance times the dollar payout, minus what you paid. If you do not enter your own estimate, the tool uses the current price as the fair chance, in which case holding and selling differ mainly by the exit fee.
Stop calculating one trade at a time
ContractTax does this across your whole Kalshi history: real P&L, a Sharp Score that rates your edge, and your tax numbers under every treatment.
These tools are for education and estimation only, not financial or tax advice. Fee estimates use Kalshi’s standard formula and may differ from your actual fees.
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