Before you place a Kalshi trade, it helps to see the whole picture: what it costs, what it pays if you win, what you lose if you are wrong, and your return on investment. This calculator lays it all out, fees included.
Enter your price and number of contracts below.
COST TO ENTER
$40.00
+ $1.68 fee
PAYOUT IF YOU WIN
$100.00
$1 per contract
PROFIT IF WIN
$58.32
LOSS IF WRONG
-$41.68
ROI IF WIN
145.8%
BREAKEVEN
40%
implied probability needed
Contracts settle at $1 (win) or $0 (lose), so your downside is capped at what you paid plus the entry fee. Fee is an estimate using Kalshi’s standard taker formula; limit (maker) orders can avoid it.
The payout math
Every contract settles at $1 if you are right and $0 if you are wrong. So if you buy at a price P, your profit per winning contract is (1 minus P), and your loss per losing contract is P, with the trading fee on top.
ROI and breakeven
Your ROI is profit divided by cost. Your breakeven probability is essentially the price you paid (plus a little for fees): if the true chance of the event is higher than that, the trade is positive expected value over the long run.
FAQ
How do I calculate Kalshi profit?
Profit per winning contract is $1 minus the price you paid, times the number of contracts, minus fees. This calculator does it for you including an estimated fee.
What is my maximum loss on Kalshi?
On any contract, the most you can lose is what you paid (plus the entry fee). Contracts settle at $1 or $0, so your downside is capped and known upfront.
What is breakeven on a Kalshi trade?
Roughly the price you paid: a 40 cent contract breaks even if the event happens about 40 percent of the time, slightly more once fees are included.
Stop calculating one trade at a time
ContractTax does this across your whole Kalshi history: real P&L, a Sharp Score that rates your edge, and your tax numbers under every treatment.
These tools are for education and estimation only, not financial or tax advice. Fee estimates use Kalshi’s standard formula and may differ from your actual fees.