How Kalshi markets settle

Updated June 1, 2026 · 4 min read

Settlement is where a market pays out, and it is also where careless traders get burned. Every Kalshi market resolves by a precise, published set of rules, and the single best habit you can build is reading them before you trade.

Here is how it works.

Every market has explicit rules

Each market's detail page spells out exactly how it settles: the precise condition for Yes, the official data source used to determine the outcome, and the resolution date. Two markets that sound similar can settle on subtly different criteria, so the wording matters.

Resolution sources

Kalshi ties each market to a defined source of truth, such as an official report or a named data provider, rather than leaving the outcome to interpretation. Knowing the source tells you what actually decides your trade and when that information becomes available.

Automatic payout

When the outcome is determined, contracts settle automatically: $1 per winning contract paid into your balance, $0 for losing ones, with no settlement fee. You do not need to do anything to collect on a winning position held to settlement.

Why reading the rules pays off

The most avoidable losses come from assuming a market means something slightly different from what its rules say, including edge cases like ties, postponements, or how a borderline result is graded. Spend the minute to read the resolution criteria every time; it is the cheapest insurance on the platform.

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Frequently asked

How does Kalshi decide who wins a market?
By the market's published resolution rules, which specify the exact condition for Yes, the official data source, and the date. The outcome is determined against that defined source.
When do Kalshi contracts pay out?
Automatically once the outcome is determined: $1 per winning contract into your balance, $0 for losers, with no settlement fee.
Why should I read the resolution rules?
Because markets that sound alike can settle on different criteria, and edge cases like ties or postponements are spelled out there. Misreading the rules is a common, avoidable way to lose.
This guide is educational and is not financial or investment advice. Trading event contracts carries risk, and you can lose what you put in. Do your own research and only risk what you can afford to lose.
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