Calibration

The degree to which stated probabilities match real outcomes: a well-calibrated forecaster's 70% predictions happen about 70% of the time. It is the core skill of prediction-market trading.

Calibration matters more than win rate because it measures whether your probabilities are trustworthy across the whole range, not just whether favorites came in. Our prediction journal grades your settled calls and plots your calibration curve so you can see where you're overconfident.