Do you owe tax on open Kalshi positions?

Updated June 19, 2026 · 4 min read · By the ContractTax team

A common worry: if a Kalshi position is up but you haven't closed it, do you owe tax on the paper gain? Usually no, but there's an important exception tied to Section 1256.

This guide explains realized versus unrealized for Kalshi. It is educational, not tax advice.

Key takeaways
  • An unrealized gain is paper profit on a position you still hold.
  • For most treatments, the taxable event is realization, selling the contract or having it settle.
  • Here's the wrinkle: Section 1256 contracts are marked to market at year-end, meaning open positions are treated as if sold on the last trading day for tax purposes.
  • ContractTax works from your realized trade history to compute your net, and surfaces the figures you'd need if a mark-to-market treatment applied to open positions.

Realized versus unrealized

An unrealized gain is paper profit on a position you still hold. A realized gain is locked in when you close the position or it settles. As a general rule, you're taxed on realized gains, not on paper ones.

So simply holding a winning contract usually doesn't trigger tax until you exit or it resolves.

You're generally taxed when you realize

For most treatments, the taxable event is realization, selling the contract or having it settle. That's when the gain or loss becomes a number on your return.

This is why your trade history, the record of closed positions, is what drives your tax figure.

The Section 1256 mark-to-market exception

Here's the wrinkle: Section 1256 contracts are marked to market at year-end, meaning open positions are treated as if sold on the last trading day for tax purposes. If you take the 1256 position and hold contracts across year-end, those unrealized gains can be recognized.

For flippers who close everything before December 31, this rarely matters, but it's the reason the answer isn't a flat no.

Where ContractTax fits

ContractTax works from your realized trade history to compute your net, and surfaces the figures you'd need if a mark-to-market treatment applied to open positions.

It is educational software, not tax advice. How open positions are handled depends on your treatment and your preparer.

See your numbers under every treatment
ContractTax turns your Kalshi trade history into the figures behind this guide: ordinary, Section 1256, and gambling treatment, side by side, plus a full P&L breakdown.
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Frequently asked

Do I owe tax on a Kalshi position I haven't closed?
Generally no. You're usually taxed on realized gains, when you close or settle, not on unrealized paper gains, except under Section 1256's year-end mark-to-market rule.
What is mark-to-market for Kalshi?
Under Section 1256, open positions are treated as if sold at year-end, so unrealized gains can be recognized. It mainly affects traders holding contracts across December 31 under that treatment.
This guide is educational and is not tax, legal, or financial advice. The tax treatment of prediction-market contracts is unsettled and depends on your specific facts. Consult a qualified tax professional before taking a position on your return.
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