Kalshi crypto price markets
How crypto markets work on Kalshi: price-level and range contracts on assets like Bitcoin, how they settle, and what moves these fast prices.
What crypto markets are on Kalshi
Kalshi offers contracts on crypto price outcomes, such as whether an asset is above a level or within a range by a certain time.
Note these are event contracts settled in dollars on Kalshi, not crypto holdings, so you are trading the outcome, not the coin.
How to think about crypto markets
Crypto never closes, so these contracts move around the clock and can gap on weekend news when stocks are shut. A position you would watch during market hours can run away from you overnight, so size for the fact that you cannot always be watching.
A 'will it be above X by date' contract is essentially an option, dominated by volatility and time to expiry as much as by direction. Far-out, far-from-the-money contracts look cheap for a reason; the price reflects how wild the asset is, not just which way you think it goes.
Respect round numbers, leverage, and macro. Short-term crypto moves cluster around psychological price levels and liquidation cascades, and the whole asset class swings with rates and risk appetite. Momentum overshoots fast in both directions, which cuts both ways for a short-dated contract.
How they settle
Each contract settles against the referenced price at the specified time, paying $1 for the correct outcome and $0 otherwise.
The reference source and timing are defined in the market.
What moves the prices
Crypto's around-the-clock volatility makes these contracts move continuously, with sharp swings on news and large spot moves.
That nonstop action rewards attention but punishes loose sizing, since a position can move hard while you are away.
Sizing and taxes
Whatever you trade, position sizing is your real risk control: Kalshi has no native stop-loss, so risking only a small percent of your bankroll per market is what keeps a cold streak survivable.
On taxes, these gains are event-contract income, not automatically gambling. The treatment (ordinary, Section 1256, or gambling) is unsettled and can change your bill, which is worth understanding before filing.