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How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Live Kalshi odds · 12 outcomesOne winner
1
Between 400 and 44917%
2
Between 350 and 39913%
3
Between 450 and 49910%
4
Between 500 and 5499%
5
Below 3008%
6
Between 300 and 3496%
7
Between 550 and 5996%
8
Between 600 and 6494%
9
Between 650 and 6994%
10
Between 700 and 7494%
11
Between 750 and 8003%
12
Above 8003%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 87%, a 13-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 17%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Between 400 and 449 at 17¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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