What are the current odds for What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU??

Hungary 3%, Italy 1%, France 1%, Greece 1%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Other

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Live Kalshi odds · 4 outcomesMultiple can happen

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 6%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

3¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

10¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+6¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 10.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 3c. Based on 48 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 6c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 3%, so historically this band has come in about 11 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Hungary at 3¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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