ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Odds boards / Economics

US real GDP growth in 2030?

Live Kalshi odds · 14 outcomesOne winner
1
2.6% to 3.0%17%
2
0.0% or Below14%
3
0.6% to 1.0%11%
4
1.6% to 2.0%10%
5
0.1% to 0.5%9%
6
4.6% to 5.0%8%
7
2.1% to 2.5%7%
8
3.1% to 3.5%7%
9
3.6% to 4.0%7%
10
4.1% to 4.5%7%
11
1.1% to 1.5%5%
12
5.6% to 6.0%3%
13
6.1% or Above3%
14
5.1% to 5.5%1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 109%, a 9-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 17%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 2.6% to 3.0% at 17¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXGDPYEAR-30" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="US real GDP growth in 2030? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXGDPYEAR-30">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.