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Odds boards / Economics

US housing starts for July

Live Kalshi odds · 10 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Above 1.360M51%
2
Above 1.380M38%
3
Above 1.400M26%
4
Above 1.420M23%
5
Above 1.460M21%
6
Above 1.440M16%
7
Above 1.500M10%
8
Above 1.480M5%
9
Above 1.520M4%
10
Above 1.540M3%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 197%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
51¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
58¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+5¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 51c. Based on 309 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). The price implies 51%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Above 1.360M at 51¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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