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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

Live Kalshi odds · 16 outcomesOne winner
1
Keith Sonderling95%
2
Riley Moore10%
3
Bryan Slater4%
4
Andrew Puzder4%
5
Johnny C. Taylor Jr.2%
6
Brandon Williams2%
7
Ron DeSantis2%
8
Patrick Pizzella1%
9
Jonathan Berry1%
10
Glenn Youngkin1%
11
Sean O'Brien1%
12
Eugene Scalia1%
13
Vince Micone1%
14
Andrew Rogers1%
15
Rosario Palmieri1%
16
Daniel Aronowitz1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 128%, a 28-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 95%, so historically this band has come in about 15 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Keith Sonderling at 95¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNEXTLABORSEC-29">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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