What are the current odds for Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State??

No other person 53%, Robert O'Brien 16%, Ric Grenell 15%, Bill Hagerty 11%, Mike Waltz 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

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Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?

Live Kalshi odds · 5 outcomesOne winner

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 98%, a 2-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

53¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

59¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+4¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 58.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 53c. Based on 41 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 4c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). The price implies 53%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, No other person at 53¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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