What are the current odds for 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner??

J.D. Vance 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12%, Marco Rubio 11%, Jon Ossoff 11%, Gavin Newsom 8%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesOne winner

J.D. Vance20%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez▲112%

Donald J. Trump Jr.1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 95%, a 5-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

20¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

24¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 24.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 20c. Based on 1,539 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=1,539). The price implies 20%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, J.D. Vance at 20¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXPRESPERSON-28" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXPRESPERSON-28">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.