What are the current odds for 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner??

J.D. Vance 17%, Marco Rubio 17%, Gavin Newsom 11%, Jon Ossoff 11%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesOne winner

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%

Donald J. Trump Jr.1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 104%, a 4-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 17%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, J.D. Vance at 17¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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