What are the current odds for 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner??

J.D. Vance 19%, Gavin Newsom 12%, Marco Rubio 10%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%, Jon Ossoff 9%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Live Kalshi odds · 34 outcomesOne winner

▼2Biggest move: J.D. Vance down to 19% recently.

J.D. Vance▼219%

Gavin Newsom▼112%

Marco Rubio10%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%

Donald J. Trump Jr.1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 101% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

19¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 14.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 19c. Based on 2,621 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,621). The price implies 19%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, J.D. Vance at 19¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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