What are the current odds for Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term??

Samuel Alito 64%, Clarence Thomas 52%, John Roberts 15%, Sonia Sotomayor 9%, Amy Coney Barrett 8%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Politics

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Live Kalshi odds · 9 outcomesMultiple can happen

Amy Coney Barrett▲18%

Neil Gorsuch2%

Brett Kavanaugh2%

Ketanji Brown Jackson2%

Elena Kagan0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 154%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

64¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

68¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 67.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 64c. Based on 214 settled markets across all categories in the 60-69c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 68% of the time (n=214). The price implies 64%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Samuel Alito at 64¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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