Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 92%, a 8-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
51¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
58¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+5¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 51c. Based on 309 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). The price implies 51%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 2 at 51¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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