Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1598%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
59¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
58¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.6% of the time against a 59c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 309 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Donald Trump Jr. at 59¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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