How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Sports

Spain vs Argentina: Regulation Time Correct Score

Live Kalshi odds · 26 outcomesOne winner

▼2Biggest move: Reg Time: Draw 2-2 down to 4% recently.

Reg Time: Draw 1-116%

Reg Time: Spain wins 1-012%

Reg Time: Draw 0-0▼110%

Reg Time: Spain wins 2-110%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 1-0▼18%

Reg Time: Spain wins 2-08%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 2-1▼17%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 2-04%

Reg Time: Draw 2-2▼24%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 3-24%

Reg Time: Spain wins 3-14%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 3-13%

Reg Time: Spain wins 3-03%

Reg Time: Spain wins 3-23%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 3-02%

Reg Time: Draw 3-3▲12%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 4-01%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 4-11%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 4-21%

Reg Time: Argentina wins 4-31%

Reg Time: Spain wins 4-01%

Reg Time: Spain wins 4-11%

Reg Time: Spain wins 4-21%

Reg Time: Spain wins 4-31%

Reg Time: Spain wins 5-01%

Reg Time: Spain wins 5-11%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 110%, a 10-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

16¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

6¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-9¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 6.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 16c. Based on 65 settled sports markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 16%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Reg Time: Draw 1-1 at 16¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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