How does Kalshi work?

Updated June 1, 2026 · 6 min read

Kalshi can look intimidating the first time you open a market, but the underlying mechanics are simple once you see the pattern. Here is the whole loop, from buying a contract to getting paid.

If you have used a stock brokerage app, the interface will feel familiar; most people place their first trade within minutes of funding an account.

Contracts pay $1 or $0

Every market is a Yes/No question with a defined resolution. Contracts trade between 1 and 99 cents, and at settlement a correct contract is worth $1 and an incorrect one is worth $0. Your profit is the difference between what you paid and what it settles at.

Price equals probability

Since the payout is always $1, a contract's price is the market's estimate of how likely the event is. A contract at 30 cents implies roughly a 30% chance. When new information arrives, traders buy or sell, and the price (the probability) moves in real time.

You trade against other people

Kalshi runs a central order book that collects everyone's buy and sell orders and matches them. You are trading with other members, not against Kalshi. The best available prices and the quantity on offer are all visible in the order book before you trade.

You can exit any time

You do not have to hold to settlement. If the price moves your way, you can sell your contracts to lock in a profit, or sell at a loss to cut a losing position. This is what lets active traders flip contracts rather than just waiting for the event.

Settlement is automatic

When the event resolves, Kalshi pays $1 per winning contract straight into your balance and $0 for losing ones. There is no settlement fee, and you keep the full payout on winners.

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Frequently asked

How are Kalshi prices set?
By supply and demand in the order book. Traders post buy and sell orders, and the price reflects the market's collective probability estimate for the event.
Do I have to wait until the event to get paid?
No. You can sell your contracts at the market price any time before settlement, or hold to settlement for the full $1 per winning contract.
What does the contract price mean?
It is roughly the implied probability of Yes. A 75 cent contract reflects about a 75% market-implied chance the event happens.
This guide is educational and is not financial or investment advice. Trading event contracts carries risk, and you can lose what you put in. Do your own research and only risk what you can afford to lose.
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