Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 24 at 10:00 AM ET?

James Talarico

11%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 11 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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More live Other markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.