Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?

Above 41.3

4%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 4 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

4¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

10¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 10.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 4c. Based on 48 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 4%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.050?1%Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's One Mile after Issuanc99%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.030?3%Will the copper close price be above 5.80 USD/Lbs on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?98%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.010?36%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-41.3" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the President's approval rating be above 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-41.3">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.