What are the odds of "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 1%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 1% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?

Above 0.4%

1%

implied chance of YES▼ 6 today

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 13 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?36%Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $81.5 by Jul 31, 2026?99%Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?21%Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $81 by Jul 31, 2026?99%Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?33%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.