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Live odds / World

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t

Above 15
24%
implied chance of YES
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 24 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 27% of the time (n=144). The price implies 24%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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More live World markets
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t72%Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to27%Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to85%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t8%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t5%
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