What are the odds of "New York M vs Philadelphia Total Runs?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 39%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 39% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

New York M vs Philadelphia Total Runs?

Over 11.5 runs scored

39%

implied chance of YES▲ 9 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 39 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

39¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

33¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-4¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 33.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 39c. Based on 129 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). The price implies 39%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Ilya Ivashka win the Pereira vs Ivashka: Semifinal match?60%Will Tiago Pereira win the Pereira vs Ivashka: Semifinal match?40%Baltimore vs Houston Total Runs?52%Will Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez win the Reasco Gonzalez vs Perez Alarcon: W35 Sao Paul71%Will Javier Barranco Cosano win the Barranco Cosano vs Bennani: M25 Gandia Semifinal match81%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXMLBTOTAL-26JUL181605NYMPHI-12" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="New York M vs Philadelphia Total Runs? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXMLBTOTAL-26JUL181605NYMPHI-12">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.