Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season?
Before the 2028-29 season
31%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 31 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
31¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
33¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 33.3% of the time against a 31c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 129 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNBARETIRE-SCURRY30-2829">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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