ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Live odds / Other

Will Guam be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

Guam
1%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 13 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
More live Other markets
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.050?1%Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's One Mile after Issuanc99%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.030?3%Will the copper close price be above 5.80 USD/Lbs on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?98%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.010?36%
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXSTATE51-29-GU" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Guam be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXSTATE51-29-GU">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.