Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 40.5% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul

37%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 32.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 37c. Based on 187 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). The price implies 37%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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