Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Sofia Costoulas win the Costoulas vs Hibino: Qualification Round 1 match?

Sofia Costoulas

81%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 81 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

83¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

70¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-12¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 69.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 83c. Based on 56 settled sports markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=104). The price implies 81%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Oleksandra Oliynykova win the Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz vs Oliynykova: Semifinal match?1%Will Andrey Rublev win the Rublev vs Tabilo: Semifinal match?65%Will Nao Hibino win the Costoulas vs Hibino: Qualification Round 1 match?19%Will Alejandro Tabilo win the Rublev vs Tabilo: Semifinal match?36%Baltimore vs Houston Total Runs?52%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.