A small edge, repeated and compounded, adds up. This simulator projects your bankroll forward over many bets given a steady per-bet return and a fixed stake size, and draws the growth curve.
Enter your starting bankroll, your expected return per bet, your stake, and the number of bets. Remember this is the smooth, variance-free version of the story.
Ending bankroll
$1,646.67
Total profit
$646.67
Growth
1.65x
Doubling time
139 bets
to 2x your bankroll
This is a smooth expected-value projection. Real bankrolls do not grow in a straight line: variance means losing streaks happen even with a genuine edge, so a stake that looks fine on paper can still draw down hard. Treat it as the ceiling, not the forecast.
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When you stake a fixed fraction of your bankroll, each bet multiplies what you have rather than adding a flat amount. Over many bets that multiplication compounds, which is why even a modest edge can grow a bankroll a lot given enough volume.
Stake size is the lever. Bet too small and growth crawls; bet too big and a normal losing streak can cripple you.
Why reality is bumpier
This projection assumes a steady edge with no variance. Real results swing: a true edge still comes with cold streaks, and the same stake that looks fine on average can produce a painful drawdown. Treat the output as a ceiling and size conservatively.
FAQ
How fast can a bankroll grow on Kalshi?
It depends on your edge per bet, your stake size, and how many bets you make. This simulator projects the compounded result, but real growth is bumpier because of variance.
What stake size should I use?
Most disciplined traders risk a small fraction of their bankroll per bet. Larger stakes grow faster on paper but make drawdowns much more severe. See the position size calculator for a Kelly-based starting point.
Is this projection realistic?
It is an expected-value projection with no variance, so it shows the smooth ideal rather than the jagged reality. Use it to compare scenarios, not as a forecast.
Stop calculating one trade at a time
ContractTax does this across your whole Kalshi history: real P&L, a Sharp Score that rates your edge, and your tax numbers under every treatment.
These tools are for education and estimation only, not financial or tax advice. Fee estimates use Kalshi’s standard formula and may differ from your actual fees.
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