Every price on Kalshi sets a bar: the win rate you must beat just to break even. This calculator turns a contract price into that breakeven win rate, then adds the small extra you need to cover the trading fee.
Enter a contract price below. If your real hit rate is not above the number it shows, the trade is not worth it.
Breakeven win rate
60%
before fees
With Kalshi fees
61.7%
taker fee included
Extra edge for fees
1.7%
At 60¢ the market is pricing in a 60% chance. You have to be right at least that often just to break even, and a little more than that to clear the fee. If your real hit rate is below the price, the market is charging you more than the edge is worth.
Why breakeven equals the price
Buying a contract at a given price is the same as paying that price as a probability. If you pay 60 cents, you are paying for a 60 percent chance, so you need to be right at least 60 percent of the time before fees just to break even.
That is the whole game: your edge is the gap between your true hit rate and the price you pay. No gap, no edge.
Adding fees
Kalshi's taker fee nudges the breakeven slightly higher than the raw price, and the fee is largest near 50 cents. The calculator adds the estimated fee so the breakeven you see is the one you actually have to clear.
FAQ
What win rate do I need to break even on Kalshi?
Roughly the contract price, expressed as a percentage, plus a little to cover fees. At 60 cents you need to win about 60 percent of the time before fees, and slightly more after.
Does the breakeven change with fees?
Yes, slightly. The taker fee raises the breakeven win rate a bit, and the effect is largest on contracts priced near 50 cents.
How do I beat the breakeven?
By finding prices that are lower than your true probability of winning. The bigger and more consistent that gap, the better your long-run edge.
Stop calculating one trade at a time
ContractTax does this across your whole Kalshi history: real P&L, a Sharp Score that rates your edge, and your tax numbers under every treatment.
These tools are for education and estimation only, not financial or tax advice. Fee estimates use Kalshi’s standard formula and may differ from your actual fees.