How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Live Kalshi odds · 12 outcomesOne winner

Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate40%

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House29%

Republican sweep19%

Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor12%

Democratic sweep2%

Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate2%

Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House1%

Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor1%

Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate1%

Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate1%

Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate0%

Independent House, Republican Governor, Democratic Senate0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 108%, a 8-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

40¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

51¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+9¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 51.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 40c. Based on 188 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 9c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,276). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate at 40¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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