Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 127%, a 27-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
31¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
33¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 33.2% of the time against a 31c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 897 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=1,214). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Carlos Alcaraz at 31¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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