Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 104%, a 4-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
18¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
16¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 16.2% of the time against a 18c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 111 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=795). The price implies 18%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Rick Devens at 18¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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