What are the current odds for Hungary rate decision in September?

Cut 50bps 3%, Cut more than 50bps 2%, Hike 25bps 2%, Hike 50bps 1%, Hike more than 50bps 1%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Hungary rate decision in September

Live Kalshi odds · 7 outcomesOne winner

Cut 50bps3%

Cut more than 50bps2%

Hike 25bps2%

Hike 50bps1%

Hike more than 50bps1%

Cut 25bps0%

Maintain current rate0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 9%, a 91-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

3¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

5¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 5.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 3c. Based on 138 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 7% of the time (n=893). The price implies 3%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Cut 50bps at 3¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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