What are the current odds for Vuelta a Espana: Stage 3 Winner?

Tadej Pogacar 72%, Alex Kirsch 69%, Asbjorn Hellemose 69%, Richard Carapaz 28%, Arthur Kluckers 22%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Vuelta a Espana: Stage 3 Winner

Live Kalshi odds · 184 outcomesOne winner

▼24Biggest move: Tadej Pogacar down to 72% recently.

Alastair Mackellar16%

Bryan Coquard16%

Alexey Lutsenko16%

Jay Vine4%

Valentin Paret-Peintre4%

Embret Svestad-Bardseng1%

Sergio Geovani Chumil0%

Matthew Brennan0%

Steffen de Schuyteneer0%

Henri Francois Renard Haquin0%

Pau Marti Soriano0%

Magnus Cort Nielsen0%

Juan Guillermo Martinez0%

Juan Felipe Rodriguez0%

Jakob Omrzel0%

Mattia Gaffuri0%

Mathias Sunekaer Norsgaard0%

Cristian Rodriguez Martin0%

Jose Manuel Diaz Gallego0%

Ivo Emanuel Alves Oliveira0%

Pavel Sivakov0%

Rasmus Fossum Tiller0%

David De la Cruz Melgarejo0%

Jesus Herrada Lopez0%

Urko Berrade Fernandez0%

Carlos Rodriguez Cano0%

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen0%

138

Fabio van Den Bossche0%

Carlos Canal Blanco0%

144

Orluis Alberto Aular Sanabria0%

Xabier Mikel Azparren Irurzun0%

Cesar Macias Estrada0%

Benjamin Elliott Turner0%

Tobias Halland Johannessen0%

Roel van Sintmaartensdijk0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 422%, a 322-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

72¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

75¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 75.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 72c. Based on 56 settled other markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=719). The price implies 72%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Tadej Pogacar at 72¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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