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Italian Grand Prix Winner

Live Kalshi odds · 22 outcomesOne winner
1
Lando Norris34%
2
George Russell31%
3
Charles Leclerc10%
4
Lewis Hamilton9%
5
Andrea Kimi Antonelli9%
6
Oscar Piastri6%
7
Max Verstappen6%
8
Carlos Sainz Jr.1%
9
Oliver Bearman1%
10
Arvid Lindblad1%
11
Alexander Albon0%
12
Nico Hulkenberg0%
13
Esteban Ocon0%
14
Gabriel Bortoleto0%
15
Fernando Alonso0%
16
Franco Colapinto0%
17
Liam Lawson0%
18
Lance Stroll0%
19
Isack Hadjar0%
20
Pierre Gasly0%
21
Sergio Perez0%
22
Valtteri Bottas0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 108%, a 8-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
34¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
31¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 30.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 34c. Based on 98 settled other markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=1,214). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Lando Norris at 34¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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