Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 99% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
30¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
32¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 31.7% of the time against a 30c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 63 settled other markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=720). The price implies 30%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Extreme Fear at 30¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXFEAR-26SEP11">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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